Closing spread
TEN -4
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.114EPA / play-0.003
- 48.1%Success rate41.7%
- +0.230EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.044
- 6.4%Explosive rate9.0%
- +4.76CPOE-2.44
- 50.8%Third-down rate36.7%
- 68.4%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 2.14Points / drive1.83
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 20-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 26/41 | 223 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 17 | 70 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Chad Simpson | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 24/37 | 193 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 19 | 77 | 4.1 | 1 |
| LenDale White | 10 | 13 | 1.3 | 2 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.26