Closing spread
TEN -4
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.114EPA / play-0.003
- 48.1%Success rate41.7%
- +0.230EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.044
- 6.4%Explosive rate9.0%
- +4.76CPOE-2.44
- 50.8%Third-down rate36.7%
- 68.4%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 2.14Points / drive1.83
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–16 since 1999
Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 21-29 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 40 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| IND | Q1 9:43 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q1 6:52 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–3 |
| IND | Q1 4:48 | 4 | 37 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| TEN | Q1 3:27 | 9 | 35 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| IND | Q2 14:14 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 7–6 |
| TEN | Q2 13:10 | 5 | 22 | Missed field goal | 7–6 |
| IND | Q2 11:19 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 7–6 |
| TEN | Q2 7:59 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–6 |
| IND | Q2 5:40 | 10 | 49 | Punt | 7–6 |
| TEN | Q2 1:21 | 5 | 16 | End of half | 7–6 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 64 | Touchdown | 14–6 |
| TEN | Q3 11:06 | 16 | 65 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| IND | Q3 3:21 | 4 | 3 | Turnover on downs | 14–14 |
| TEN | Q3 0:54 | 5 | 17 | Field goal | 14–17 |
| IND | Q4 14:45 | 8 | 35 | Turnover on downs | 14–17 |
| TEN | Q4 11:28 | 13 | 66 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| IND | Q4 4:37 | 4 | 13 | Turnover | 14–30 |
| TEN | Q4 3:38 | 1 | 16 | Touchdown | 14–31 |
| IND | Q4 3:31 | 11 | 71 | Touchdown | 21–31 |
| TEN | Q4 1:17 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 26/41 | 223 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 17 | 70 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Chad Simpson | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 24/37 | 193 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 19 | 77 | 4.1 | 1 |
| LenDale White | 10 | 13 | 1.3 | 2 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.26