Closing spread
BAL -9
Total
34.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 7–5 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. BAL are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 12:54 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:58 | 3 | -7 | Safety | 0–2 |
| BAL | Q1 10:32 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 0–2 |
| LV | Q1 8:11 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–2 |
| BAL | Q1 6:09 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 0–2 |
| LV | Q1 4:03 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–2 |
| BAL | Q1 1:55 | 5 | 17 | Touchdown | 0–9 |
| LV | Q2 14:26 | 6 | 26 | Turnover | 0–9 |
| BAL | Q2 11:35 | 9 | 99 | Touchdown | 0–16 |
| LV | Q2 7:26 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–16 |
| BAL | Q2 5:19 | 11 | 71 | Field goal | 0–19 |
| LV | Q2 0:10 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 0–19 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–19 |
| LV | Q3 11:51 | 5 | 66 | Field goal | 3–19 |
| BAL | Q3 10:13 | 12 | 82 | Field goal | 3–22 |
| LV | Q3 3:18 | 6 | 69 | Touchdown | 10–22 |
| BAL | Q3 0:36 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 10–22 |
| LV | Q4 11:11 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–22 |
| BAL | Q4 9:31 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 10–22 |
| LV | Q4 8:44 | 5 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 10–22 |
| BAL | Q4 6:46 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–22 |
| LV | Q4 5:03 | 4 | -10 | Turnover on downs | 10–22 |
| BAL | Q4 4:39 | 4 | 15 | Touchdown | 10–29 |
| LV | Q4 3:35 | 11 | 58 | Turnover on downs | 10–29 |
| BAL | Q4 1:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–29 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 12/24 | 140 | 1 | 0 |
| Troy Smith | 1/1 | 43 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 8 | 64 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 23 | 58 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Troy Smith | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.18
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.67
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.