Closing spread
BAL -9
Total
34.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 7–5 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. BAL are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 12/24 | 140 | 1 | 0 |
| Troy Smith | 1/1 | 43 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 8 | 64 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 23 | 58 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Troy Smith | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.18
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.67
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.