Closing spread
SF -5
Total
41
Model margin
-2.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play-0.056
- 37.8%Success rate43.6%
- -0.022EPA / dropback-0.002
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.150
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.4%
- -5.09CPOE+1.59
- 31.4%Third-down rate37.4%
- 54.9%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
- 1.56Points / drive1.64
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SF are 22-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 12:57 | 8 | 46 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 9:58 | 6 | 57 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q1 7:06 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| SF | Q1 6:10 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 6–0 |
| SEA | Q1 4:33 | 14 | 63 | Touchdown | 13–0 |
| SF | Q2 12:01 | 10 | 61 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| SEA | Q2 7:05 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 13–3 |
| SF | Q2 5:24 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 13–3 |
| SEA | Q2 3:35 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 13–3 |
| SF | Q2 3:08 | 11 | 39 | Opp touchdown | 20–3 |
| SF | Q2 0:31 | 1 | 5 | End of half | 20–3 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 20–3 |
| SF | Q3 11:34 | 13 | 56 | Field goal | 20–6 |
| SEA | Q3 4:12 | 5 | 60 | Touchdown | 27–6 |
| SF | Q3 1:50 | 15 | 77 | Touchdown | 27–13 |
| SEA | Q4 9:57 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 34–13 |
| SF | Q4 6:10 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 34–13 |
| SEA | Q4 4:34 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 34–13 |
| SF | Q4 4:03 | 5 | 33 | Turnover on downs | 34–13 |
| SEA | Q4 2:43 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 34–13 |
| SF | Q4 0:26 | 2 | 44 | End of half | 34–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 15/25 | 222 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 11 | 16 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 8 | 1 | 0.1 | 1 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 15/23 | 173 | 1 | 0 |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 13/21 | 131 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 18 | 94 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.6%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-5.09
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.42