Closing spread
SF -5
Total
41
Model margin
-2.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play-0.056
- 37.8%Success rate43.6%
- -0.022EPA / dropback-0.002
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.150
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.4%
- -5.09CPOE+1.59
- 31.4%Third-down rate37.4%
- 54.9%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
- 1.56Points / drive1.64
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SF are 21-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 15/25 | 222 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 11 | 16 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 8 | 1 | 0.1 | 1 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 15/23 | 173 | 1 | 0 |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 13/21 | 131 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 18 | 94 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.6%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-5.09
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.42