2008 · Week 8
Final
Texas Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 74°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
DAL -1
Total
40.5
Model margin
-3.2est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.018
- 43.2%Success rate41.9%
- +0.028EPA / dropback-0.021
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.015
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.2%
- +1.84CPOE+3.06
- 38.9%Third-down rate43.2%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
- 1.55Points / drive1.67
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 36.8 points. DAL are 8-7-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 13:55 | 5 | 29 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DAL | Q1 10:57 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TB | Q1 9:54 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DAL | Q1 8:07 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TB | Q1 5:45 | 9 | 34 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| DAL | Q1 1:09 | 13 | 51 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| TB | Q2 9:29 | 13 | 47 | Missed field goal | 6–3 |
| DAL | Q2 2:23 | 12 | 31 | Touchdown | 6–10 |
| TB | Q2 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–10 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 6–10 |
| DAL | Q3 14:18 | 7 | 7 | Punt | 6–10 |
| TB | Q3 11:01 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 6–10 |
| DAL | Q3 7:21 | 5 | 25 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| TB | Q3 5:13 | 9 | 56 | Field goal | 9–13 |
| DAL | Q3 0:34 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 9–13 |
| TB | Q4 13:03 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 9–13 |
| DAL | Q4 12:33 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 9–13 |
| TB | Q4 11:34 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 9–13 |
| DAL | Q4 9:58 | 10 | 23 | Punt | 9–13 |
| TB | Q4 4:15 | 16 | 56 | Turnover on downs | 9–13 |
| DAL | Q4 0:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 9–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 27/43 | 227 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 17 | 42 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 19/33 | 122 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 25 | 71 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.6%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.27
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-4.40
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.19