2008 · Week 8
Final
Texas Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 74°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
DAL -1
Total
40.5
Model margin
-3.2est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.018
- 43.2%Success rate41.9%
- +0.028EPA / dropback-0.021
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.015
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.2%
- +1.84CPOE+3.06
- 38.9%Third-down rate43.2%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
- 1.55Points / drive1.67
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 9–6 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. DAL are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 27/43 | 227 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 17 | 42 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 19/33 | 122 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 25 | 71 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.6%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.27
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-4.40
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.19