2008 · Week 8
Final
Ford Field · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
WAS -7
Total
42
Model margin
-1.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.162
- 42.3%Success rate36.3%
- +0.004EPA / dropback-0.203
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.092
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.2%
- -1.49CPOE-3.61
- 36.0%Third-down rate28.7%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
- 1.37Points / drive1.21
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. DET are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 78 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DET | Q1 8:12 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 3–0 |
| WAS | Q1 4:59 | 6 | 29 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| DET | Q1 1:42 | 5 | 44 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| WAS | Q1 0:13 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 3–7 |
| DET | Q2 13:17 | 7 | 44 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| WAS | Q2 10:28 | 14 | 59 | Missed field goal | 3–10 |
| DET | Q2 3:24 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 3–10 |
| WAS | Q2 2:22 | 10 | 71 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 6–10 |
| WAS | Q3 13:44 | 5 | 35 | Field goal | 9–10 |
| DET | Q3 11:02 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 9–10 |
| WAS | Q3 8:45 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 16–10 |
| DET | Q3 4:42 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 16–10 |
| WAS | Q3 2:58 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 16–10 |
| DET | Q3 0:47 | 7 | 41 | Opp touchdown | 22–10 |
| DET | Q4 11:29 | 10 | 81 | Touchdown | 22–17 |
| WAS | Q4 6:39 | 9 | 56 | Field goal | 25–17 |
| DET | Q4 1:56 | 7 | 24 | Turnover on downs | 25–17 |
| WAS | Q4 0:39 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 25–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 23/28 | 328 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 24 | 126 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Orlovsky | 21/35 | 223 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Dan Orlovsky | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.1%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.34
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.85