2008 · Week 8
Final
Ford Field · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
WAS -7
Total
42
Model margin
-1.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.162
- 42.3%Success rate36.3%
- +0.004EPA / dropback-0.203
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.092
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.2%
- -1.49CPOE-3.61
- 36.0%Third-down rate28.7%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
- 1.37Points / drive1.21
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. DET are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 23/28 | 328 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 24 | 126 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Orlovsky | 21/35 | 223 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Dan Orlovsky | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.1%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.34
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.85