2019 · Week 12

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jeff Driskel

16·19

Commanders

Washington

QB Dwayne Haskins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

DET -4

Total

39

Model margin

+2.7est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.039EPA / play-0.130
  • 41.5%Success rate38.8%
  • +0.049EPA / dropback-0.110
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.164
  • 8.8%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -3.54CPOE-2.94
  • 41.4%Third-down rate29.0%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
  • 1.73Points / drive1.49
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. WAS are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10DET @ WAS44–22DET
2024 · playoffsWAS @ DET45–31WAS
2022 · W2WAS @ DET27–36DET
2020 · W10WAS @ DET27–30DET
2016 · W7WAS @ DET17–20DET
2013 · W3DET @ WAS27–20DET
2010 · W8WAS @ DET25–37DET
2009 · W3WAS @ DET14–19DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–WAS
WASQ1 15:0032Turnover0–0
DETQ1 13:16517Missed field goal0–0
WASQ1 9:521360Field goal0–3
DETQ1 2:31971Field goal3–9
WASQ2 13:0900Touchdown3–10
DETQ2 12:54420Turnover3–10
WASQ2 11:1233Punt3–10
DETQ2 10:2116Turnover3–10
WASQ2 10:08642Field goal3–13
DETQ2 5:44626Punt3–13
WASQ2 2:1738Punt3–13
DETQ2 1:05619Field goal6–13
WASQ2 0:1400End of half6–13
DETQ3 15:00980Touchdown13–13
WASQ3 10:0344Punt13–13
DETQ3 8:451051Punt13–13
WASQ3 2:553-7Punt13–13
DETQ3 1:111157Field goal16–13
WASQ4 12:01430Turnover16–13
DETQ4 10:1543Punt16–13
WASQ4 8:5543Punt16–13
DETQ4 7:3033Punt16–13
WASQ4 5:31854Field goal16–16
DETQ4 1:49412Turnover16–16
WASQ4 0:48533Field goal16–19
DETQ4 0:162-1Turnover16–19
WASQ4 0:0200End of half16–19

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Driskel20/3320713

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bo Scarbrough18985.40
Jeff Driskel9637.00
Ty Johnson4112.80
J.D. McKissic133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Golladay44610
Marvin Jones511460
Logan Thomas22241
Danny Amendola33210
Marvin Hall12210
J.D. McKissic22170
Ty Johnson22100
Jesse James1170
Bo Scarbrough0100
T.J. Hockenson0200

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dwayne Haskins13/2915601
Steven Sims0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrius Guice10323.20
Dwayne Haskins3289.30
Adrian Peterson10272.70
Case Keenum1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin512720
Kelvin Harmon36430
Adrian Peterson11220
Paul Richardson1260
Derrius Guice1260
Jeremy Sprinkle1240
Wendell Smallwood1130
Trey Quinn0100
Steven Sims0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -43.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.4%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.47
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.74