2019 · Week 12
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 17mph
Closing spread
DET -4
Total
39
Model margin
+2.7est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.039EPA / play-0.130
- 41.5%Success rate38.8%
- +0.049EPA / dropback-0.110
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.164
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.3%
- -3.54CPOE-2.94
- 41.4%Third-down rate29.0%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
- 1.73Points / drive1.49
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. WAS are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Driskel | 20/33 | 207 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Scarbrough | 18 | 98 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Jeff Driskel | 9 | 63 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 4 | 4 | 61 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 5 | 11 | 46 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Bo Scarbrough | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Haskins | 13/29 | 156 | 0 | 1 |
| Steven Sims | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrius Guice | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Dwayne Haskins | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 12 | 72 | 0 |
| Kelvin Harmon | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Derrius Guice | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Trey Quinn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.47
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.47
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.74