2013 · Week 3
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
DET -1
Total
48.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play-0.058
- 43.1%Success rate42.2%
- +0.083EPA / dropback-0.053
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.065
- 9.7%Explosive rate8.0%
- -3.33CPOE-3.92
- 42.9%Third-down rate40.7%
- 73.4%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.75Points / drive1.37
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. WAS are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 25/42 | 385 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 20 | 63 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Burleson | 6 | 9 | 116 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 7 | 13 | 115 | 1 |
| Joique Bell | 4 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Ryan Broyles | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Kris Durham | 1 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Joseph Fauria | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 32/50 | 326 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 15 | 73 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Robert Griffin III | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santana Moss | 7 | 9 | 77 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 8 | 13 | 73 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 4 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 3 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.05
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.43