2013 · Week 3

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

27·20

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

DET -1

Total

48.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.004EPA / play-0.058
  • 43.1%Success rate42.2%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback-0.053
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.065
  • 9.7%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -3.33CPOE-3.92
  • 42.9%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 73.4%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.37
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. WAS are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10DET @ WAS44–22DET
2024 · playoffsWAS @ DET45–31WAS
2022 · W2WAS @ DET27–36DET
2020 · W10WAS @ DET27–30DET
2019 · W12DET @ WAS16–19WAS
2016 · W7WAS @ DET17–20DET
2010 · W8WAS @ DET25–37DET
2009 · W3WAS @ DET14–19DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–WAS
DETQ1 15:00627Punt0–0
WASQ1 12:39729Punt0–6
DETQ1 9:3110Opp touchdown0–7
DETQ1 9:23965Touchdown7–7
WASQ1 5:1436Punt7–7
DETQ1 3:391092Touchdown14–7
WASQ2 14:471166Turnover14–7
DETQ2 8:5838Punt14–7
WASQ2 6:53877Touchdown14–14
DETQ2 3:29866Field goal17–14
WASQ2 0:4452End of half17–14
WASQ3 15:00535Field goal17–17
DETQ3 12:1136Punt17–17
WASQ3 10:42717Punt17–17
DETQ3 7:07735Punt17–17
WASQ3 3:21311Punt17–17
DETQ3 1:1338Punt17–17
WASQ4 14:51651Turnover17–17
DETQ4 12:38565Field goal20–17
WASQ4 11:08633Punt20–17
DETQ4 8:15971Touchdown27–17
WASQ4 3:561262Field goal27–20
DETQ4 1:403-2Punt27–20
WASQ4 0:38431End of half27–20

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford25/4238521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joique Bell20633.11
Matthew Stafford122.00
Theo Riddick2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Burleson691160
Calvin Johnson7131151
Joique Bell45690
Ryan Broyles33340
Kris Durham13330
Theo Riddick1280
Tony Scheffler2250
Joseph Fauria1351
Brandon Pettigrew0200

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III32/5032601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris15734.91
Robert Griffin III6376.20
Pierre Garcon11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santana Moss79770
Pierre Garcon813730
Logan Paulsen46510
Jordan Reed56500
Roy Helu33350
Leonard Hankerson37210
Josh Morgan22190
Niles Paul0100
Aldrick Robinson0200
Alfred Morris0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.9%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.05
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.43