2025 · Week 10
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
DET -8.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.071EPA / play+0.035
- 45.0%Success rate46.4%
- +0.167EPA / dropback+0.084
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.039
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.6%
- +1.64CPOE+0.67
- 39.2%Third-down rate37.2%
- 66.0%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 2.54Points / drive2.03
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. WAS are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 25/33 | 320 | 3 | 0 |
| Kyle Allen | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 15 | 142 | 9.5 | 2 |
| David Montgomery | 15 | 71 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Sione Vaki | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Allen | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | 6 | 7 | 119 | 1 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 5 | 8 | 58 | 1 |
| Sam LaPorta | 5 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 3 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 16/22 | 213 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treylon Burks | 3 | 3 | 58 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Jaylin Lane | 1 | 1 | 41 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 5 | 29 | 1 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| John Bates | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ben Sinnott | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.92
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.22