2025 · Week 10

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

44·22

Commanders

Washington

QB Marcus Mariota

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

DET -8.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

-0.2est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.071EPA / play+0.035
  • 45.0%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.167EPA / dropback+0.084
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.039
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +1.64CPOE+0.67
  • 39.2%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 66.0%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
  • 2.54Points / drive2.03
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. WAS are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · playoffsWAS @ DET45–31WAS
2022 · W2WAS @ DET27–36DET
2020 · W10WAS @ DET27–30DET
2019 · W12DET @ WAS16–19WAS
2016 · W7WAS @ DET17–20DET
2013 · W3DET @ WAS27–20DET
2010 · W8WAS @ DET25–37DET
2009 · W3WAS @ DET14–19DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–WAS
WASQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
DETQ1 13:281078Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 8:24631Field goal7–3
DETQ1 5:43965Touchdown14–3
WASQ1 1:54511Punt14–3
DETQ2 14:521082Touchdown22–3
WASQ2 9:411075Touchdown22–10
DETQ2 3:391264Field goal25–10
WASQ2 0:1100End of half25–10
DETQ3 15:00572Touchdown32–10
WASQ3 12:06969Touchdown32–16
DETQ3 7:05872Field goal35–16
WASQ3 2:3037Punt35–16
DETQ3 0:53684Touchdown41–16
WASQ4 12:501286Touchdown41–22
DETQ4 6:57515Field goal44–22
WASQ4 4:3433Punt44–22
DETQ4 2:09315End of half44–22

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff25/3332030
Kyle Allen0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs151429.52
David Montgomery15714.70
Kalif Raymond11010.00
Sione Vaki144.00
Kyle Allen1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jameson Williams671191
Amon-Ra St. Brown58581
Sam LaPorta55530
Kalif Raymond44490
Jahmyr Gibbs34301
Isaac TeSlaa11110
Ross Dwelley0100
David Montgomery1100
Brock Wright0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota16/2221320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt11302.70
Jeremy McNichols5255.00
Marcus Mariota5224.40
Chris Rodriguez Jr.6162.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Treylon Burks33580
Zach Ertz45540
Jaylin Lane11410
Deebo Samuel Sr.45291
Robbie Chosen14170
John Bates1260
Jeremy McNichols1140
Ben Sinnott1141

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -8.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.5%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.92
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.22