2016 · Week 7
Final
Ford Field · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
WAS -1
Total
50
Model margin
+0.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play+0.054
- 48.2%Success rate45.4%
- +0.202EPA / dropback+0.166
- -0.033EPA / rush-0.187
- 10.6%Explosive rate7.8%
- +4.99CPOE+0.07
- 44.9%Third-down rate42.7%
- 51.2%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
- 2.32Points / drive2.05
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. DET are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 30/39 | 301 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Thompson | 12 | 73 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Matt Jones | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Rob Kelley | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 7 | 9 | 108 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 6 | 6 | 79 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 7 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 5 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Rob Kelley | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 18/29 | 266 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 5 | 94 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 6 | 12 | 93 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 3 | 4 | 28 | 1 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.68
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.06