2016 · Week 7

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

17·20

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

WAS -1

Total

50

Model margin

+0.1est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapLions
  • +0.118EPA / play+0.054
  • 48.2%Success rate45.4%
  • +0.202EPA / dropback+0.166
  • -0.033EPA / rush-0.187
  • 10.6%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +4.99CPOE+0.07
  • 44.9%Third-down rate42.7%
  • 51.2%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
  • 2.32Points / drive2.05
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. DET are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10DET @ WAS44–22DET
2024 · playoffsWAS @ DET45–31WAS
2022 · W2WAS @ DET27–36DET
2020 · W10WAS @ DET27–30DET
2019 · W12DET @ WAS16–19WAS
2013 · W3DET @ WAS27–20DET
2010 · W8WAS @ DET25–37DET
2009 · W3WAS @ DET14–19DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DET
DETQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:53926Punt0–0
DETQ1 8:34950Missed field goal0–0
WASQ1 3:51759Turnover0–0
DETQ1 0:201065Field goal0–3
WASQ2 9:371048Missed field goal0–3
DETQ2 4:513-6Punt0–3
WASQ2 3:17951Field goal3–3
WASQ3 15:00744Punt3–3
DETQ3 10:13786Touchdown3–10
WASQ3 7:20832Turnover3–10
DETQ3 3:221058Field goal3–13
WASQ4 13:101070Touchdown10–13
DETQ4 8:2057Punt10–13
WASQ4 5:201081Touchdown17–13
DETQ4 1:05675Touchdown17–20
WASQ4 0:1632End of half17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins30/3930110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Thompson12736.10
Matt Jones10272.70
Kirk Cousins3155.01
Rob Kelley4153.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamison Crowder791080
Vernon Davis66790
Chris Thompson77400
DeSean Jackson58350
Pierre Garcon25220
Niles Paul11110
Ryan Grant1250
Rob Kelley1111

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford18/2926610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett8334.10
Matthew Stafford23216.00
Zach Zenner9293.21

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones45940
Golden Tate612930
Anquan Boldin34281
Andre Roberts12200
Clay Harbor22160
Justin Forsett22150
Zach Zenner0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.2%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.68
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.06