2020 · Week 10
Final
Ford Field · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
DET -2.5
Total
46
Model margin
-3.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.014
- 42.1%Success rate45.5%
- -0.063EPA / dropback+0.103
- -0.030EPA / rush-0.156
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.4%
- -1.32CPOE-1.27
- 40.2%Third-down rate41.6%
- 63.6%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
- 1.76Points / drive2.14
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. DET are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 38/55 | 390 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 13 | 45 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Terry McLaurin | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 8 | 6 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 7 | 9 | 95 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 4 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| Isaiah Wright | 6 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 4 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 5 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 7 | 15 | 43 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jeff Badet | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 24/33 | 276 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 16 | 81 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 8 | 10 | 96 | 1 |
| D'Andre Swift | 5 | 5 | 68 | 1 |
| Marvin Hall | 2 | 3 | 61 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Quintez Cephus | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Isaac Nauta | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
6.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.0%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.73
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.02