2020 · Week 10

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Alex Smith

27·30

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -2.5

Total

46

Model margin

-3.0est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapLions
  • -0.051EPA / play+0.014
  • 42.1%Success rate45.5%
  • -0.063EPA / dropback+0.103
  • -0.030EPA / rush-0.156
  • 7.7%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -1.32CPOE-1.27
  • 40.2%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 63.6%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
  • 1.76Points / drive2.14
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. DET are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10DET @ WAS44–22DET
2024 · playoffsWAS @ DET45–31WAS
2022 · W2WAS @ DET27–36DET
2019 · W12DET @ WAS16–19WAS
2016 · W7WAS @ DET17–20DET
2013 · W3DET @ WAS27–20DET
2010 · W8WAS @ DET25–37DET
2009 · W3WAS @ DET14–19DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DET
WASQ1 15:00937Punt0–0
DETQ1 9:04592Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 7:12854Field goal3–7
DETQ1 3:25716Punt3–7
WASQ1 0:2935Punt3–7
DETQ2 14:02653Touchdown3–14
WASQ2 11:55725Missed field goal3–14
DETQ2 8:0130Punt3–14
WASQ2 6:331248Turnover3–14
DETQ2 1:14639Field goal3–17
WASQ2 0:0800End of half3–17
DETQ3 15:001285Touchdown3–24
WASQ3 7:581182Touchdown10–24
DETQ3 2:3038Punt10–24
WASQ3 1:001184Touchdown17–24
DETQ4 11:2144Punt17–24
WASQ4 8:53761Touchdown24–24
DETQ4 6:091056Field goal24–27
WASQ4 2:371969Field goal27–27
DETQ4 0:16319Field goal27–30

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith38/5539000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson13453.52
Terry McLaurin12727.00
Peyton Barber273.50
J.D. McKissic860.81
Alex Smith242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin79950
Logan Thomas45660
Isaiah Wright66590
Cam Sims45540
Steven Sims56460
J.D. McKissic715430
Antonio Gibson44200
Peyton Barber1170
Jeff Badet0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford24/3327630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift16815.10
Adrian Peterson4215.30
Kerryon Johnson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones810961
D'Andre Swift55681
Marvin Hall23611
T.J. Hockenson24130
Danny Amendola33100
Quintez Cephus12100
Adrian Peterson1190
Jesse James2390
Isaac Nauta0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

6.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.0%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.73
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.02