2010 · Week 8

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Donovan McNabb

25·37

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -2.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapLions
  • -0.079EPA / play-0.043
  • 40.8%Success rate40.5%
  • -0.045EPA / dropback+0.013
  • -0.148EPA / rush-0.145
  • 9.3%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -4.10CPOE-3.37
  • 29.2%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 58.6%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.59
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. DET are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10DET @ WAS44–22DET
2024 · playoffsWAS @ DET45–31WAS
2022 · W2WAS @ DET27–36DET
2020 · W10WAS @ DET27–30DET
2019 · W12DET @ WAS16–19WAS
2016 · W7WAS @ DET17–20DET
2013 · W3DET @ WAS27–20DET
2009 · W3WAS @ DET14–19DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DET
WASQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
DETQ1 13:3031Punt0–0
WASQ1 12:365-3Punt0–0
DETQ1 9:56525Turnover0–0
WASQ1 7:4337Punt0–0
DETQ1 5:43716Punt0–0
WASQ1 1:44415Punt0–0
DETQ2 14:46312Punt0–0
WASQ2 14:0433Punt0–0
DETQ2 12:47319Touchdown0–7
WASQ2 11:58342Touchdown7–7
DETQ2 10:39414Punt7–7
WASQ2 8:003-12Punt7–7
DETQ2 6:06410Punt7–7
WASQ2 4:32769Field goal10–7
DETQ2 1:0439Punt10–7
WASQ2 0:16221Field goal13–7
DETQ3 15:003-9Punt13–7
WASQ3 13:2934Punt13–7
DETQ3 12:08948Touchdown13–14
WASQ3 7:10944Punt13–14
DETQ3 3:29651Turnover13–14
WASQ3 0:5736Punt13–14
DETQ4 14:4832Punt13–14
WASQ4 12:35346Touchdown19–14
DETQ4 11:15647Touchdown25–20
WASQ4 8:2100Touchdown25–20
DETQ4 8:05621Punt25–20
WASQ4 5:2120Turnover25–20
DETQ4 4:32832Touchdown25–28
WASQ4 3:1252Turnover on downs25–28
DETQ4 2:1036Field goal25–31
WASQ4 1:501-13Opp touchdown25–37
WASQ4 1:36744End of half25–37

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb17/3021011
Rex Grossman4/74400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donovan McNabb44511.30
Keiland Williams6254.21
Ryan Torain9101.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anthony Armstrong36920
Santana Moss610560
Chris Cooley47480
Keiland Williams33280
Ryan Torain34191
Fred Davis1290
Joey Galloway1420
Mike Sellers0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford26/4521241

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Smith12514.30
Jahvid Best12484.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson9151013
Nate Burleson79470
Jahvid Best58310
Kevin Smith23160
Bryant Johnson1490
Brandon Pettigrew2581
Tony Scheffler0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.63
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.72
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.96