2010 · Week 8
Final
Ford Field · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
DET -2.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play-0.043
- 40.8%Success rate40.5%
- -0.045EPA / dropback+0.013
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.145
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.9%
- -4.10CPOE-3.37
- 29.2%Third-down rate40.4%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
- 1.31Points / drive1.59
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. DET are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 17/30 | 210 | 1 | 1 |
| Rex Grossman | 4/7 | 44 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 4 | 45 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Ryan Torain | 9 | 10 | 1.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Armstrong | 3 | 6 | 92 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 6 | 10 | 56 | 0 |
| Chris Cooley | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Ryan Torain | 3 | 4 | 19 | 1 |
| Fred Davis | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 26/45 | 212 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 12 | 51 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jahvid Best | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 9 | 15 | 101 | 3 |
| Nate Burleson | 7 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| Jahvid Best | 5 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| Tony Scheffler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.72
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.96