2024 · DIV

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Jayden Daniels

45·31

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -8.5

Total

55.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapLions
  • +0.138EPA / play+0.156
  • 48.1%Success rate49.6%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback+0.267
  • +0.027EPA / rush+0.021
  • 8.5%Explosive rate11.5%
  • +4.57CPOE+5.81
  • 45.9%Third-down rate48.1%
  • 67.2%Red-zone TD rate74.9%
  • 2.78Points / drive3.02
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. DET are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10DET @ WAS44–22DET
2022 · W2WAS @ DET27–36DET
2020 · W10WAS @ DET27–30DET
2019 · W12DET @ WAS16–19WAS
2016 · W7WAS @ DET17–20DET
2013 · W3DET @ WAS27–20DET
2010 · W8WAS @ DET25–37DET
2009 · W3WAS @ DET14–19DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DET
DETQ1 15:003-3Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:45856Turnover on downs0–0
DETQ1 10:38671Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 7:36941Field goal3–7
DETQ1 3:50551Turnover3–7
WASQ1 0:551276Touchdown10–7
DETQ2 10:55770Touchdown10–14
WASQ2 7:44370Touchdown17–14
DETQ2 6:2321Opp touchdown24–14
DETQ2 5:25378Touchdown24–21
WASQ2 4:01770Touchdown31–21
DETQ2 1:46741Turnover31–21
WASQ2 0:2200End of half31–21
WASQ3 15:00413Punt31–21
DETQ3 12:531276Touchdown31–28
WASQ3 6:571552Touchdown38–28
DETQ4 13:29327Turnover38–28
WASQ4 12:04871Touchdown45–28
DETQ4 7:31860Field goal45–31
WASQ4 5:01634Missed field goal45–31
DETQ4 2:261049Turnover45–31
WASQ4 0:2500End of half45–31

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jayden Daniels22/3129920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Robinson15775.12
Jayden Daniels16513.20
Austin Ekeler6477.80
Jeremy McNichols482.01
Marcus Mariota1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dyami Brown68980
Terry McLaurin46871
Austin Ekeler44410
Zach Ertz55281
Jamison Crowder22250
John Bates12200
Olamide Zaccheaus0200

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff23/4031313
David Montgomery1/12000
Teddy Bridgewater1/1300
Jameson Williams0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs141057.52
Jameson Williams16161.01
David Montgomery7284.00
Jared Goff177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown8101370
Jahmyr Gibbs611700
Sam LaPorta67511
Kalif Raymond33370
Tim Patrick14220
Jameson Williams14190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.47