2024 · DIV
Final
Ford Field · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
DET -8.5
Total
55.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.138EPA / play+0.156
- 48.1%Success rate49.6%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.267
- +0.027EPA / rush+0.021
- 8.5%Explosive rate11.5%
- +4.57CPOE+5.81
- 45.9%Third-down rate48.1%
- 67.2%Red-zone TD rate74.9%
- 2.78Points / drive3.02
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. DET are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 22/31 | 299 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 15 | 77 | 5.1 | 2 |
| Jayden Daniels | 16 | 51 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 6 | 47 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dyami Brown | 6 | 8 | 98 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 6 | 87 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 5 | 5 | 28 | 1 |
| Jamison Crowder | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| John Bates | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 23/40 | 313 | 1 | 3 |
| David Montgomery | 1/1 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 1/1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 14 | 105 | 7.5 | 2 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 61 | 61.0 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 8 | 10 | 137 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 6 | 11 | 70 | 0 |
| Sam LaPorta | 6 | 7 | 51 | 1 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.21
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.47