2022 · Week 2
Final
Ford Field · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
WAS -1
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play+0.073
- 40.9%Success rate45.7%
- -0.045EPA / dropback+0.173
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.070
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.5%
- -1.41CPOE-1.27
- 34.9%Third-down rate41.5%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
- 1.48Points / drive2.36
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. DET are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 30/46 | 337 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 14 | 28 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Carson Wentz | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Samuel | 7 | 9 | 78 | 1 |
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 8 | 75 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 4 | 5 | 59 | 1 |
| J.D. McKissic | 7 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 3 | 5 | 37 | 1 |
| John Bates | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Dax Milne | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 20/34 | 256 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 2 | 68 | 34.0 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 5 | 56 | 11.2 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 12 | 53 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 9 | 12 | 116 | 2 |
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 3 | 38 | 1 |
| D'Andre Swift | 2 | 5 | 31 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.20
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.90