2022 · Week 2

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Carson Wentz

27·36

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

WAS -1

Total

48.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapLions
  • -0.066EPA / play+0.073
  • 40.9%Success rate45.7%
  • -0.045EPA / dropback+0.173
  • -0.092EPA / rush-0.070
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -1.41CPOE-1.27
  • 34.9%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 61.4%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
  • 1.48Points / drive2.36
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. DET are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10DET @ WAS44–22DET
2024 · playoffsWAS @ DET45–31WAS
2020 · W10WAS @ DET27–30DET
2019 · W12DET @ WAS16–19WAS
2016 · W7WAS @ DET17–20DET
2013 · W3DET @ WAS27–20DET
2010 · W8WAS @ DET25–37DET
2009 · W3WAS @ DET14–19DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DET
DETQ1 15:003-9Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:3536Punt0–0
DETQ1 11:32663Field goal0–3
WASQ1 8:06313Punt0–3
DETQ1 6:22554Turnover on downs0–3
WASQ1 4:022-3Safety0–5
DETQ1 3:17431Touchdown0–12
WASQ1 1:4034Punt0–12
DETQ1 0:01428Field goal0–15
WASQ2 13:4737Punt0–15
DETQ2 12:10977Touchdown0–22
WASQ2 6:43615Punt0–22
DETQ2 4:1236Punt0–22
WASQ2 2:43614Punt0–22
DETQ2 0:3230Punt0–22
WASQ2 0:0510End of half0–22
WASQ3 15:00564Touchdown7–22
DETQ3 12:5834Punt7–22
WASQ3 11:36326Turnover7–22
DETQ3 10:06521Punt7–22
WASQ3 7:18794Touchdown15–22
DETQ3 2:58475Touchdown15–29
WASQ3 1:281283Touchdown21–29
DETQ4 10:39670Touchdown21–36
WASQ4 7:001476Touchdown27–36
DETQ4 1:5647Turnover on downs27–36
WASQ4 1:354-3Turnover on downs27–36
DETQ4 0:5200End of half27–36

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz30/4633731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson14282.01
Carson Wentz22311.50
Curtis Samuel12121.00
J.D. McKissic393.00
Terry McLaurin177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Curtis Samuel79781
Terry McLaurin48750
Jahan Dotson45591
J.D. McKissic77540
Logan Thomas35371
John Bates23150
Antonio Gibson24130
Dax Milne1160
Cam Sims0200

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff20/3425640

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown26834.00
D'Andre Swift55611.20
Jamaal Williams12534.40
Craig Reynolds3165.30
Jared Goff2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown9121162
Josh Reynolds33381
D'Andre Swift25311
T.J. Hockenson37260
Brock Wright11250
Craig Reynolds11130
Jamaal Williams1170
DJ Chark0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.9%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.90