Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
49.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
6.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. STL are 25-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 14 | 73 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 7:50 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 5:40 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–6 |
| LA | Q1 4:34 | 1 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 4:23 | 5 | 29 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 1:25 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q2 14:43 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 6–7 |
| LA | Q2 12:21 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 7–7 |
| LA | Q2 12:10 | 5 | 0 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q2 9:15 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| LA | Q2 8:09 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 10–7 |
| ARI | Q2 4:43 | 6 | 102 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| LA | Q2 1:53 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 17–7 |
| ARI | Q2 1:18 | 2 | 56 | Touchdown | 24–7 |
| LA | Q2 0:42 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 24–7 |
| ARI | Q2 0:08 | 2 | 47 | End of half | 24–7 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 24 | Turnover on downs | 24–7 |
| ARI | Q3 12:45 | 4 | -7 | Punt | 24–7 |
| LA | Q3 10:31 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 24–7 |
| ARI | Q3 8:17 | 8 | 82 | Touchdown | 31–7 |
| LA | Q3 3:16 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 31–7 |
| ARI | Q3 1:07 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 31–7 |
| LA | Q4 14:05 | 5 | 20 | Touchdown | 31–13 |
| ARI | Q4 12:17 | 12 | 80 | Field goal | 34–13 |
| LA | Q4 3:27 | 5 | 32 | Turnover | 34–13 |
| ARI | Q4 2:15 | 2 | 19 | End of half | 34–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 23/34 | 342 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 22 | 109 | 5.0 | 1 |
| J.J. Arrington | 6 | 62 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
6.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.23
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.