2008 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

37·27

Browns

Cleveland

QB Derek Anderson

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CLE -1

Total

36.5

Model margin

-2.9est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBrowns
  • -0.018EPA / play-0.155
  • 40.6%Success rate36.2%
  • -0.007EPA / dropback-0.205
  • -0.027EPA / rush-0.086
  • 7.9%Explosive rate6.7%
  • -0.33CPOE-11.69
  • 41.3%Third-down rate33.5%
  • 50.4%Red-zone TD rate29.2%
  • 1.61Points / drive1.05
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–15 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE
2022 · W7CLE @ BAL20–23BAL

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco17/2924820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice211547.30
Joe Flacco420.50
Troy Smith111.00

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson17/3321921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis19492.60
Derek Anderson284.00
Jerome Harrison155.00
Jason Wright122.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.3%

Expected total

39.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.39
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.90