Closing spread
CLE -1
Total
36.5
Model margin
-2.9est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play-0.155
- 40.6%Success rate36.2%
- -0.007EPA / dropback-0.205
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.086
- 7.9%Explosive rate6.7%
- -0.33CPOE-11.69
- 41.3%Third-down rate33.5%
- 50.4%Red-zone TD rate29.2%
- 1.61Points / drive1.05
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 40.2 points. CLE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 14:01 | 9 | 19 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CLE | Q1 10:40 | 7 | 31 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| BAL | Q1 6:08 | 2 | 47 | Touchdown | 10–6 |
| CLE | Q1 5:19 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| BAL | Q1 5:05 | 12 | 57 | Punt | 10–7 |
| CLE | Q2 14:28 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–7 |
| BAL | Q2 12:56 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 10–7 |
| CLE | Q2 11:29 | 10 | 74 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| BAL | Q2 5:50 | 11 | 66 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| CLE | Q2 0:29 | 4 | 30 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| BAL | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–13 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–19 |
| CLE | Q3 13:13 | 1 | 28 | Touchdown | 13–20 |
| BAL | Q3 13:05 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 13–20 |
| CLE | Q3 11:04 | 9 | 66 | Touchdown | 13–27 |
| BAL | Q3 6:07 | 12 | 74 | Touchdown | 20–27 |
| CLE | Q3 1:10 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 20–27 |
| BAL | Q4 15:00 | 3 | 42 | Touchdown | 27–27 |
| CLE | Q4 13:57 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 27–27 |
| BAL | Q4 12:13 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 27–27 |
| CLE | Q4 9:57 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 27–27 |
| BAL | Q4 7:30 | 4 | 59 | Field goal | 30–27 |
| CLE | Q4 5:36 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 30–27 |
| BAL | Q4 4:30 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 30–27 |
| CLE | Q4 3:25 | 3 | 2 | Opp touchdown | 37–27 |
| CLE | Q4 2:43 | 6 | 18 | Turnover on downs | 37–27 |
| BAL | Q4 2:04 | 3 | 11 | End of half | 37–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 17/29 | 248 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 21 | 154 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Troy Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 17/33 | 219 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 19 | 49 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.3%
Expected total
39.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.39
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.90