Closing spread
NYG -9.5
Total
42
Model margin
+8.4est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play+0.093
- 41.9%Success rate47.3%
- -0.021EPA / dropback+0.129
- -0.015EPA / rush+0.050
- 10.2%Explosive rate10.1%
- +3.06CPOE+0.84
- 43.2%Third-down rate43.7%
- 67.6%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 1.67Points / drive2.09
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 8:47 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q1 5:33 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 4:19 | 4 | 33 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q1 2:48 | 6 | 17 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| DAL | Q1 0:41 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 0–14 |
| NYG | Q2 14:27 | 8 | -4 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| DAL | Q2 11:25 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| NYG | Q2 10:40 | 4 | 13 | Opp touchdown | 7–14 |
| NYG | Q2 8:38 | 8 | 18 | Punt | 7–14 |
| DAL | Q2 4:32 | 4 | 25 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| NYG | Q2 2:48 | 6 | 52 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| DAL | Q2 1:28 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–21 |
| NYG | Q2 0:48 | 2 | 17 | End of half | 7–21 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 7–21 |
| NYG | Q3 14:06 | 2 | 18 | Touchdown | 7–28 |
| DAL | Q3 13:16 | 3 | -17 | Punt | 7–28 |
| NYG | Q3 11:28 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 7–28 |
| DAL | Q3 9:18 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–28 |
| NYG | Q3 7:45 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–28 |
| DAL | Q3 7:31 | 17 | 65 | Touchdown | 14–28 |
| NYG | Q4 14:07 | 10 | 77 | Touchdown | 14–35 |
| DAL | Q4 8:20 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 14–35 |
| NYG | Q4 6:50 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 14–35 |
| DAL | Q4 2:30 | 6 | 42 | End of half | 14–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 5/11 | 71 | 0 | 2 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 9/16 | 63 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 19 | 54 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 16/27 | 147 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 17 | 117 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Derrick Ward | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
3.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.8%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.51
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+4.40
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.40