Closing spread
CHI -12.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+6.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.162EPA / play-0.095
- 36.3%Success rate39.3%
- -0.203EPA / dropback-0.083
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.2%
- -3.61CPOE-3.00
- 28.7%Third-down rate35.1%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 1.21Points / drive1.70
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Orlovsky | 28/47 | 292 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 14 | 37 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Rudi Johnson | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Dan Orlovsky | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 8/14 | 108 | 0 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 9/19 | 58 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 22 | 126 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jason McKie | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Rex Grossman | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Kevin Jones | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.1%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.42
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.47