Closing spread
JAX -7
Total
40
Model margin
+2.5est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
4.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play-0.172
- 44.6%Success rate38.0%
- +0.013EPA / dropback-0.150
- -0.032EPA / rush-0.208
- 8.0%Explosive rate5.1%
- +3.08CPOE-3.29
- 41.7%Third-down rate35.3%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate45.7%
- 1.65Points / drive0.93
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 7-8-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 23/38 | 229 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 21/31 | 162 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 24 | 104 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 52 | 17.3 | 0 |
| Antonio Chatman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.52