Closing spread
JAX -7
Total
40
Model margin
+2.5est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
4.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play-0.172
- 44.6%Success rate38.0%
- +0.013EPA / dropback-0.150
- -0.032EPA / rush-0.208
- 8.0%Explosive rate5.1%
- +3.08CPOE-3.29
- 41.7%Third-down rate35.3%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate45.7%
- 1.65Points / drive0.93
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 42.2 points. CIN are 7-9-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 34 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 10:19 | 14 | 86 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 2:28 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 0:07 | 11 | 65 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| JAX | Q2 10:44 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 0–14 |
| CIN | Q2 7:11 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–14 |
| JAX | Q2 5:12 | 5 | 20 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| CIN | Q2 3:03 | 6 | 42 | Punt | 3–14 |
| JAX | Q2 0:52 | 3 | 17 | End of half | 3–14 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 3–14 |
| JAX | Q3 13:26 | 7 | 52 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| CIN | Q3 9:59 | 2 | 37 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| JAX | Q3 9:15 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–21 |
| CIN | Q3 7:23 | 5 | 16 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| JAX | Q3 5:27 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 3–21 |
| CIN | Q3 3:32 | 5 | 2 | Punt | 3–21 |
| JAX | Q3 1:24 | 9 | 59 | Field goal | 12–21 |
| CIN | Q4 13:27 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 13–21 |
| CIN | Q4 13:17 | 9 | 49 | Punt | 13–21 |
| JAX | Q4 8:28 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–21 |
| CIN | Q4 7:24 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 13–21 |
| JAX | Q4 5:56 | 11 | 73 | Touchdown | 19–21 |
| CIN | Q4 1:17 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 19–21 |
| JAX | Q4 0:11 | 1 | -3 | End of half | 19–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 23/38 | 229 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 21/31 | 162 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 24 | 104 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 52 | 17.3 | 0 |
| Antonio Chatman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.52