2008 · Week 9

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

26·7

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Seneca Wallace

Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 58°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

PHI -7

Total

43.5

Model margin

-1.0est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.004EPA / play-0.057
  • 43.8%Success rate37.8%
  • +0.039EPA / dropback-0.022
  • -0.055EPA / rush-0.103
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -1.08CPOE-5.09
  • 41.3%Third-down rate31.4%
  • 50.9%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
  • 1.73Points / drive1.56
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–3 since 1999

SEA have won 8 straight. Meetings average 37.8 points. SEA are 9-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15PHI @ SEA17–20SEA
2020 · W12SEA @ PHI23–17SEA
2019 · playoffsSEA @ PHI17–9SEA
2019 · W12SEA @ PHI17–9SEA
2017 · W13PHI @ SEA10–24SEA
2016 · W11PHI @ SEA15–26SEA
2014 · W14SEA @ PHI24–14SEA
2011 · W13PHI @ SEA14–31SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–SEA
PHIQ1 15:0037Punt0–6
SEAQ1 13:26190Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 13:1130Punt0–7
SEAQ1 12:3834Punt0–7
PHIQ1 11:483-1Punt0–7
SEAQ1 10:4539Punt0–7
PHIQ1 8:33872Turnover0–7
SEAQ1 4:1334Punt0–7
PHIQ1 3:0333Punt0–7
SEAQ1 2:111239Punt0–7
PHIQ2 10:51770Touchdown7–7
SEAQ2 6:3337Punt7–7
PHIQ2 5:221155Touchdown14–7
SEAQ2 0:40325Punt14–7
PHIQ2 0:0516End of half14–7
SEAQ3 15:0035Punt14–7
PHIQ3 13:40537Field goal17–7
SEAQ3 11:25839Punt17–7
PHIQ3 7:49969Field goal20–7
SEAQ3 1:2633Punt20–7
PHIQ4 14:461055Field goal23–7
SEAQ4 9:273-7Punt23–7
PHIQ4 8:24746Field goal26–7
SEAQ4 4:35618Punt26–7
PHIQ4 2:2730Punt26–7
SEAQ4 0:253-3End of half26–7

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb28/4334921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook20613.00
Donovan McNabb263.00
DeSean Jackson133.00
Correll Buckhalter221.00
Lorenzo Booker300.00

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Seneca Wallace13/2916910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Morris8435.40
Julius Jones10414.10
T.J. Duckett242.00
Seneca Wallace122.00
Koren Robinson1-4-4.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

4.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.4%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.48
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.99