Closing spread
HOU -2.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play+0.037
- 40.6%Success rate45.3%
- -0.007EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.012
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.6%
- -0.33CPOE+3.93
- 41.3%Third-down rate42.2%
- 50.4%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 1.61Points / drive1.91
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 13–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 6-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 13:51 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 12:13 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 10:42 | 8 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q1 7:05 | 10 | 51 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| BAL | Q1 1:37 | 11 | 46 | Punt | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q2 10:52 | 9 | 85 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| BAL | Q2 6:48 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 9–3 |
| HOU | Q2 4:01 | 0 | 0 | Safety | 9–3 |
| BAL | Q2 4:01 | 5 | 32 | Field goal | 12–3 |
| HOU | Q2 1:01 | 6 | 52 | Field goal | 12–6 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 53 | Touchdown | 19–6 |
| HOU | Q3 9:16 | 5 | 35 | Turnover | 19–6 |
| BAL | Q3 6:23 | 6 | 14 | Missed field goal | 19–12 |
| HOU | Q3 3:10 | 1 | 60 | Touchdown | 19–13 |
| BAL | Q3 3:01 | 12 | 54 | Touchdown | 27–13 |
| HOU | Q4 14:03 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 27–13 |
| BAL | Q4 12:54 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 27–13 |
| HOU | Q4 10:03 | 5 | 15 | Turnover | 27–13 |
| BAL | Q4 7:57 | 3 | 19 | Touchdown | 34–13 |
| HOU | Q4 6:29 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 34–13 |
| BAL | Q4 6:17 | 3 | 17 | Touchdown | 41–13 |
| HOU | Q4 4:37 | 12 | 47 | Turnover on downs | 41–13 |
| BAL | Q4 0:36 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 41–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 15/23 | 185 | 2 | 0 |
| Troy Smith | 1/1 | 14 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 25 | 112 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Ray Rice | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Troy Smith | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sage Rosenfels | 23/38 | 294 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Moats | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Steve Slaton | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.9%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.16
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.06