Closing spread
HOU -2.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play+0.037
- 40.6%Success rate45.3%
- -0.007EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.012
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.6%
- -0.33CPOE+3.93
- 41.3%Third-down rate42.2%
- 50.4%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 1.61Points / drive1.91
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 13–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 6-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 15/23 | 185 | 2 | 0 |
| Troy Smith | 1/1 | 14 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 25 | 112 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Ray Rice | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Troy Smith | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sage Rosenfels | 23/38 | 294 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Moats | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Steve Slaton | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.9%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.16
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.06