Closing spread
CLE -3
Total
47
Model margin
+0.7est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.101EPA / play-0.155
- 49.2%Success rate36.2%
- +0.157EPA / dropback-0.205
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.086
- 9.1%Explosive rate6.7%
- +1.41CPOE-11.69
- 48.2%Third-down rate33.5%
- 61.3%Red-zone TD rate29.2%
- 2.01Points / drive1.05
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–2 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. CLE are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 42 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 13:23 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 11:51 | 9 | 86 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CLE | Q1 7:03 | 6 | 59 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q1 3:38 | 5 | 31 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q1 1:15 | 10 | 62 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| DEN | Q2 12:45 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| CLE | Q2 11:53 | 3 | 20 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| DEN | Q2 10:29 | 10 | 70 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| CLE | Q2 5:48 | 7 | 45 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| DEN | Q2 1:09 | 8 | 39 | End of half | 10–20 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 64 | Field goal | 10–23 |
| DEN | Q3 10:21 | 9 | 60 | Field goal | 13–23 |
| CLE | Q3 5:37 | 11 | 41 | Punt | 19–23 |
| DEN | Q4 13:43 | 1 | 93 | Touchdown | 20–23 |
| CLE | Q4 13:30 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 20–23 |
| DEN | Q4 12:41 | 8 | 62 | Touchdown | 27–23 |
| CLE | Q4 9:50 | 9 | 78 | Touchdown | 27–30 |
| DEN | Q4 4:57 | 13 | 75 | Touchdown | 34–30 |
| CLE | Q4 1:14 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 34–30 |
| DEN | Q4 0:50 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 34–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 24/42 | 447 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Torain | 12 | 68 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Selvin Young | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Quinn | 23/35 | 239 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 19 | 60 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Josh Cribbs | 3 | 48 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 5 | 48 | 9.6 | 0 |
| Brady Quinn | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.48
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.64
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.65