Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+2.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play-0.039
- 43.8%Success rate40.9%
- +0.134EPA / dropback+0.001
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.081
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.0%
- +4.24CPOE-2.18
- 44.1%Third-down rate39.7%
- 66.2%Red-zone TD rate53.5%
- 1.94Points / drive1.59
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 13:07 | 9 | 39 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 9:01 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 7:24 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 7:16 | 6 | 48 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q1 4:01 | 12 | 48 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| GB | Q2 12:56 | 3 | 0 | Safety | 7–12 |
| MIN | Q2 12:22 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–12 |
| GB | Q2 10:38 | 7 | 43 | Punt | 7–12 |
| MIN | Q2 7:33 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 7–12 |
| GB | Q2 3:24 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–12 |
| MIN | Q2 1:53 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–12 |
| GB | Q2 0:52 | 2 | -9 | Safety | 7–14 |
| MIN | Q2 0:44 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| GB | Q2 0:22 | 3 | 16 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 77 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| GB | Q3 10:31 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 10–21 |
| MIN | Q3 8:34 | 3 | 5 | Missed field goal | 10–21 |
| GB | Q3 7:07 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 16–21 |
| MIN | Q3 5:35 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 17–21 |
| MIN | Q3 5:21 | 4 | 12 | Opp touchdown | 24–21 |
| MIN | Q3 3:09 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 24–21 |
| GB | Q3 0:19 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 24–21 |
| MIN | Q4 12:16 | 6 | 36 | Turnover on downs | 24–21 |
| GB | Q4 8:58 | 5 | 34 | Field goal | 27–21 |
| MIN | Q4 5:56 | 7 | 69 | Touchdown | 27–28 |
| GB | Q4 2:22 | 4 | 25 | Missed field goal | 27–28 |
| MIN | Q4 0:26 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 15/26 | 142 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 16 | 75 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 15/28 | 151 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 30 | 192 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.26