Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+2.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play-0.039
- 43.8%Success rate40.9%
- +0.134EPA / dropback+0.001
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.081
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.0%
- +4.24CPOE-2.18
- 44.1%Third-down rate39.7%
- 66.2%Red-zone TD rate53.5%
- 1.94Points / drive1.59
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 15/26 | 142 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 16 | 75 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 15/28 | 151 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 30 | 192 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.26