Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.114EPA / play-0.031
- 48.1%Success rate42.9%
- +0.230EPA / dropback+0.022
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.103
- 6.4%Explosive rate7.8%
- +4.76CPOE+0.13
- 50.8%Third-down rate41.3%
- 68.4%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
- 2.14Points / drive1.61
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.2 points. PIT are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 21/40 | 240 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 30/42 | 284 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mewelde Moore | 24 | 57 | 2.4 | 2 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.38