2026 · Week 5

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Daniel Jones

22·34

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Aaron Rodgers

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

+6.6est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.111EPA / play-0.011
  • 42.1%Success rate42.8%
  • -0.187EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.002EPA / rush+0.097
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -3.59CPOE-2.16
  • 38.6%Third-down rate36.7%
  • 59.8%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 1.71Points / drive1.87
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 12–4 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. PIT are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9IND @ PIT20–27PIT
2024 · W4PIT @ IND24–27IND
2023 · W15PIT @ IND13–30IND
2022 · W12PIT @ IND24–17PIT
2020 · W16IND @ PIT24–28PIT
2019 · W9IND @ PIT24–26PIT
2017 · W10PIT @ IND20–17PIT
2016 · W12PIT @ IND28–7PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–PIT
PITQ1 15:004-5Punt0–0
INDQ1 12:21622Field goal3–0
PITQ1 8:57180Touchdown3–7
INDQ1 8:4535Field goal6–7
PITQ1 6:551568Touchdown6–14
INDQ2 13:171176Touchdown13–14
PITQ2 7:4335Punt13–14
INDQ2 6:03639Punt13–14
PITQ2 2:421058Field goal13–17
INDQ2 0:2115End of half13–17
INDQ3 15:00951Field goal16–17
PITQ3 10:23670Touchdown16–24
INDQ3 7:06945Field goal19–24
PITQ3 2:133-10Punt19–24
INDQ3 1:111151Field goal22–24
PITQ4 11:421064Touchdown22–31
INDQ4 6:35914Turnover on downs22–31
PITQ4 4:12413Field goal22–34
INDQ4 3:43624Turnover on downs22–34
PITQ4 2:35211End of half22–34

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones24/4426700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor15453.00
Seth McGowan5163.20
Daniel Jones341.30
Tyler Warren111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Warren79830
Josh Downs36470
Keenan Allen59450
Jonathan Taylor34370
Laquon Treadwell28340
Mo Alie-Cox22140
Andrew Ogletree1140
Seth McGowan1130
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine0100
Deion Burks0200

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers22/3123530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren151016.71
DK Metcalf11111.00
Aaron Rodgers166.00
Lew Nichols III166.00
Germie Bernard144.00
Pat Freiermuth111.00
Mason Rudolph2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylen Warren66871
Germie Bernard69800
Pat Freiermuth57442
DK Metcalf34120
Darnell Washington23120
Roman Wilson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.2%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.5%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+6.64