Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+15.0est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Coltsedge mapSteelers
- -0.225EPA / play-0.251
- 42.6%Success rate33.8%
- -0.409EPA / dropback-0.251
- +0.116EPA / rush-0.252
- 13.0%Explosive rate6.2%
- -5.06CPOE+1.23
- 30.0%Third-down rate25.0%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 1.99Points / drive1.00
- 3.7%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.2 points. PIT are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+12.53
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+14.99