2020 · Week 16

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Philip Rivers

24·28

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

IND -1

Total

43

Model margin

+0.7est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.083EPA / play+0.035
  • 46.8%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.181EPA / dropback+0.118
  • -0.048EPA / rush-0.134
  • 11.3%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -0.03CPOE-0.90
  • 39.7%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate70.3%
  • 2.35Points / drive2.12
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 12–4 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. PIT are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5IND @ PIT22–34PIT
2025 · W9IND @ PIT20–27PIT
2024 · W4PIT @ IND24–27IND
2023 · W15PIT @ IND13–30IND
2022 · W12PIT @ IND24–17PIT
2019 · W9IND @ PIT24–26PIT
2017 · W10PIT @ IND20–17PIT
2016 · W12PIT @ IND28–7PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–PIT
PITQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
INDQ1 14:33970Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 9:48622Punt7–0
INDQ1 5:33617Punt7–0
PITQ1 1:4434Punt7–0
INDQ2 14:461-9Turnover7–0
PITQ2 14:3732Touchdown7–7
INDQ2 13:471285Touchdown14–7
PITQ2 6:3530Punt14–7
INDQ2 4:50243Touchdown21–7
PITQ2 4:02728Punt21–7
INDQ2 1:48411Punt21–7
PITQ2 0:14337End of half21–7
INDQ3 15:00960Field goal24–7
PITQ3 9:231175Turnover on downs24–7
INDQ3 5:0135Punt24–13
PITQ3 3:23139Touchdown24–14
INDQ3 3:1633Punt24–14
PITQ3 1:43729Touchdown24–21
INDQ4 14:52520Punt24–21
PITQ4 12:061184Touchdown24–28
INDQ4 7:38317Turnover24–28
PITQ4 6:05835Punt24–28
INDQ4 2:181243Turnover on downs24–28
PITQ4 1:1400End of half24–28

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers21/3427011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor18744.12
Nyheim Hines8445.50
Ashton Dulin188.00
Jacoby Brissett111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Pascal36641
T.Y. Hilton37600
Jack Doyle46500
Michael Pittman36380
Mo Alie-Cox11200
Nyheim Hines44200
Trey Burton34180

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger34/4934130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner5214.21
Diontae Johnson122.00
Benny Snell600.00
Ben Roethlisberger2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JuJu Smith-Schuster913961
Diontae Johnson814741
Chase Claypool46540
Eric Ebron57471
James Conner55450
James Washington23200
Vance McDonald1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.9%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.69