Closing spread
IND -1
Total
43
Model margin
+0.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play+0.035
- 46.8%Success rate44.0%
- +0.181EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.048EPA / rush-0.134
- 11.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- -0.03CPOE-0.90
- 39.7%Third-down rate42.1%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate70.3%
- 2.35Points / drive2.12
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.2 points. PIT are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 21/34 | 270 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 18 | 74 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Nyheim Hines | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Pascal | 3 | 6 | 64 | 1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 34/49 | 341 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Diontae Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 9 | 13 | 96 | 1 |
| Diontae Johnson | 8 | 14 | 74 | 1 |
| Chase Claypool | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 5 | 7 | 47 | 1 |
| James Conner | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| James Washington | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.69