Closing spread
IND -2.5
Total
40
Model margin
-1.0est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.012EPA / play-0.154
- 45.1%Success rate40.3%
- +0.016EPA / dropback-0.139
- +0.006EPA / rush-0.181
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.4%
- +1.33CPOE-1.42
- 43.5%Third-down rate33.3%
- 55.1%Red-zone TD rate45.5%
- 1.65Points / drive1.33
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.2 points. IND are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 20/28 | 174 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benny Snell | 12 | 62 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Najee Harris | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Kenny Pickett | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Anthony McFarland | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 3 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 5 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Anthony McFarland | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Cody White | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Zach Gentry | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 22/34 | 199 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 20 | 86 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jelani Woods | 8 | 9 | 98 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 7 | 11 | 61 | 1 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.4%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.69
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.99