2022 · Week 12

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kenny Pickett

24·17

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Matt Ryan

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -2.5

Total

40

Model margin

-1.0est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapColts
  • +0.012EPA / play-0.154
  • 45.1%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.016EPA / dropback-0.139
  • +0.006EPA / rush-0.181
  • 7.9%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +1.33CPOE-1.42
  • 43.5%Third-down rate33.3%
  • 55.1%Red-zone TD rate45.5%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.33
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 12–4 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. IND are 6-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5IND @ PIT22–34PIT
2025 · W9IND @ PIT20–27PIT
2024 · W4PIT @ IND24–27IND
2023 · W15PIT @ IND13–30IND
2020 · W16IND @ PIT24–28PIT
2019 · W9IND @ PIT24–26PIT
2017 · W10PIT @ IND20–17PIT
2016 · W12PIT @ IND28–7PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–IND
PITQ1 15:001058Field goal3–0
INDQ1 9:2720Turnover3–0
PITQ1 9:0960Punt3–0
INDQ1 4:5830Punt3–0
PITQ1 3:00727Field goal6–0
INDQ2 14:0936Punt6–0
PITQ2 13:171079Touchdown13–0
INDQ2 7:46942Field goal13–3
PITQ2 3:481168Field goal16–3
INDQ2 0:56623Missed field goal16–3
INDQ3 15:00419Touchdown16–10
PITQ3 13:0439Punt16–10
INDQ3 11:551778Turnover16–10
PITQ3 4:2938Punt16–10
INDQ3 2:57655Touchdown16–17
PITQ3 0:161160Touchdown24–17
INDQ4 9:5530Punt24–17
PITQ4 7:50616Punt24–17
INDQ4 3:521167Turnover on downs24–17
PITQ4 0:2400End of half24–17

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kenny Pickett20/2817400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Benny Snell12625.21
Najee Harris10353.51
Kenny Pickett6325.30
Anthony McFarland6305.00
Gunner Olszewski199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens36570
Diontae Johnson58490
Pat Freiermuth34390
Anthony McFarland22110
Steven Sims2390
Benny Snell1160
Najee Harris1140
Cody White1120
Zach Gentry11-40

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan22/3419911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor20864.31
Matt Ryan4225.50
Zack Moss122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jelani Woods89980
Michael Pittman711611
Mo Alie-Cox23140
Parris Campbell23140
Jonathan Taylor34120
Alec Pierce0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.4%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.69
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.99