2017 · Week 10

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

20·17

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

PIT -10.5

Total

47

Model margin

-1.7est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapColts
  • +0.076EPA / play-0.107
  • 46.0%Success rate38.7%
  • +0.177EPA / dropback-0.102
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.115
  • 9.4%Explosive rate6.7%
  • +3.69CPOE-4.56
  • 43.8%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 57.6%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
  • 2.22Points / drive1.22
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 12–4 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. IND are 6-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5IND @ PIT22–34PIT
2025 · W9IND @ PIT20–27PIT
2024 · W4PIT @ IND24–27IND
2023 · W15PIT @ IND13–30IND
2022 · W12PIT @ IND24–17PIT
2020 · W16IND @ PIT24–28PIT
2019 · W9IND @ PIT24–26PIT
2016 · W12PIT @ IND28–7PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–IND
PITQ1 15:0025Turnover0–0
INDQ1 14:0938Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:0236Punt0–0
INDQ1 9:48611Punt0–0
PITQ1 6:25929Punt0–0
INDQ1 1:13483Touchdown0–7
PITQ2 14:52419Punt0–7
INDQ2 13:041368Field goal0–10
PITQ2 5:513-6Punt0–10
INDQ2 4:126-1Punt0–10
PITQ2 1:39747Field goal3–10
INDQ2 0:3000End of half3–10
INDQ3 15:00475Touchdown3–17
PITQ3 12:461077Touchdown9–17
INDQ3 7:47610Punt9–17
PITQ3 4:44410Punt9–17
INDQ3 2:3633Punt9–17
PITQ3 1:09415Punt9–17
INDQ4 14:1432Turnover9–17
PITQ4 12:52310Touchdown17–17
INDQ4 11:523-13Punt17–17
PITQ4 10:10734Missed field goal17–17
INDQ4 6:17722Punt17–17
PITQ4 3:10970Field goal20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger19/3123621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell26803.10
James Conner11212.00
Ben Roethlisberger252.50
Martavis Bryant1-9-9.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JuJu Smith-Schuster57971
Antonio Brown37470
Martavis Bryant35420
Le'Veon Bell56320
Vance McDonald22161
Eli Rogers1120
Jesse James0200

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett14/2422221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore17543.20
Jacoby Brissett471.80
Marlon Mack771.00
Chester Rogers133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chester Rogers661041
Donte Moncrief11601
T.Y. Hilton24230
Marlon Mack24190
Jack Doyle2590
Frank Gore1170
Darrell Daniels0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -10.52.9%4.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.4%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.91
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-1.73