Closing spread
PIT -10.5
Total
47
Model margin
-1.7est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play-0.107
- 46.0%Success rate38.7%
- +0.177EPA / dropback-0.102
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.115
- 9.4%Explosive rate6.7%
- +3.69CPOE-4.56
- 43.8%Third-down rate38.0%
- 57.6%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 2.22Points / drive1.22
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.2 points. IND are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 19/31 | 236 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 26 | 80 | 3.1 | 0 |
| James Conner | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 5 | 7 | 97 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 3 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 5 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 2 | 2 | 16 | 1 |
| Eli Rogers | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 14/24 | 222 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 17 | 54 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 7 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Rogers | 6 | 6 | 104 | 1 |
| Donte Moncrief | 1 | 1 | 60 | 1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Darrell Daniels | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.4%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.91
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-1.73