2024 · Week 4

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Justin Fields

24·27

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Anthony Richardson

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

PIT -2.5

Total

40

Model margin

+3.0est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapColts
  • -0.027EPA / play-0.045
  • 40.7%Success rate40.6%
  • +0.051EPA / dropback-0.025
  • -0.124EPA / rush-0.071
  • 9.8%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +3.65CPOE-5.38
  • 39.7%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.87
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 12–4 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. IND are 6-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5IND @ PIT22–34PIT
2025 · W9IND @ PIT20–27PIT
2023 · W15PIT @ IND13–30IND
2022 · W12PIT @ IND24–17PIT
2020 · W16IND @ PIT24–28PIT
2019 · W9IND @ PIT24–26PIT
2017 · W10PIT @ IND20–17PIT
2016 · W12PIT @ IND28–7PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–IND
INDQ1 15:00870Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 12:01929Punt0–7
INDQ1 7:19983Touchdown0–14
PITQ1 2:3449Turnover on downs0–14
INDQ1 0:28825Field goal0–17
PITQ2 12:3137Punt0–17
INDQ2 10:58429Punt0–17
PITQ2 8:14991Turnover0–17
INDQ2 3:04733Punt0–17
PITQ2 1:14644Field goal3–17
PITQ3 15:00722Punt3–17
INDQ3 10:2539Punt3–17
PITQ3 8:463-22Turnover3–17
INDQ3 7:4836Missed field goal3–17
PITQ3 5:49661Touchdown10–17
INDQ3 2:531155Touchdown10–24
PITQ4 14:43857Touchdown17–24
INDQ4 11:23954Field goal17–27
PITQ4 6:03770Touchdown24–27
INDQ4 3:403-5Punt24–27
PITQ4 2:39736Turnover on downs24–27
INDQ4 0:2900End of half24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields22/3431210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Fields10555.52
Cordarrelle Patterson6437.20
Najee Harris13191.50
Aaron Shampklin155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens7111130
Pat Freiermuth57571
Najee Harris36540
Darnell Washington22310
Van Jefferson23210
Cordarrelle Patterson22190
Calvin Austin III11170

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco16/2616820
Anthony Richardson3/47100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor21884.21
Anthony Richardson3248.00
Adonai Mitchell11010.00
Trey Sermon581.60
Joe Flacco231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman691130
Josh Downs89821
Jonathan Taylor34200
Andrew Ogletree11151
Alec Pierce1290
Adonai Mitchell0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.14
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.98