Closing spread
PIT -2.5
Total
40
Model margin
+3.0est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play-0.045
- 40.7%Success rate40.6%
- +0.051EPA / dropback-0.025
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.071
- 9.8%Explosive rate10.3%
- +3.65CPOE-5.38
- 39.7%Third-down rate37.8%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.86Points / drive1.87
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.2 points. IND are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 22/34 | 312 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 10 | 55 | 5.5 | 2 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 13 | 19 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Shampklin | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 7 | 11 | 113 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 5 | 7 | 57 | 1 |
| Najee Harris | 3 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 16/26 | 168 | 2 | 0 |
| Anthony Richardson | 3/4 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 21 | 88 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Anthony Richardson | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Trey Sermon | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 9 | 113 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 8 | 9 | 82 | 1 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| Alec Pierce | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.42
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.14
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.98