2019 · Week 9

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

24·26

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Mason Rudolph

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

PIT -1

Total

39.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.009EPA / play-0.136
  • 44.5%Success rate38.5%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback-0.061
  • +0.022EPA / rush-0.257
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -3.86CPOE-1.51
  • 41.9%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
  • 1.94Points / drive1.35
  • 1.8%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 12–4 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. PIT are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5IND @ PIT22–34PIT
2025 · W9IND @ PIT20–27PIT
2024 · W4PIT @ IND24–27IND
2023 · W15PIT @ IND13–30IND
2022 · W12PIT @ IND24–17PIT
2020 · W16IND @ PIT24–28PIT
2017 · W10PIT @ IND20–17PIT
2016 · W12PIT @ IND28–7PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–PIT
PITQ1 15:00626Turnover0–0
INDQ1 12:20823Field goal3–0
PITQ1 7:091072Field goal3–3
INDQ1 0:58968Touchdown10–3
PITQ2 11:571056Turnover on downs10–3
INDQ2 6:01745Opp touchdown10–10
INDQ2 2:21660Touchdown16–10
PITQ2 0:42532Field goal16–13
INDQ3 15:00919Turnover16–13
PITQ3 10:401139Touchdown16–20
INDQ3 5:25742Punt16–20
PITQ3 2:333-1Safety18–20
INDQ3 1:0500Field goal18–20
PITQ3 0:5832Field goal18–23
INDQ4 14:5735Punt18–23
PITQ4 13:2234Turnover18–23
INDQ4 11:55730Touchdown24–23
PITQ4 8:43643Field goal24–26
INDQ4 6:36511Punt24–26
PITQ4 3:5832Punt24–26
INDQ4 2:28825Missed field goal24–26
PITQ4 1:1100End of half24–26

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer17/2616831
Jacoby Brissett4/55900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marlon Mack21894.20
Parris Campbell3279.00
Nyheim Hines177.00
Brian Hoyer166.00
Jordan Wilkins166.00
Jacoby Brissett242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Pascal56761
Parris Campbell55530
Jack Doyle34221
Chester Rogers35221
Nyheim Hines13210
Eric Ebron22160
Mo Alie-Cox11110
Jordan Wilkins1260
Deon Cain0200

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mason Rudolph26/3519111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trey Edmunds12736.10
Jaylen Samuels8101.30
Mason Rudolph351.70
Diontae Johnson122.00
Tony Brooks-James100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylen Samuels1313730
James Washington44690
Vance McDonald57301
JuJu Smith-Schuster35160
Diontae Johnson1230
Nick Vannett0100
Johnny Holton0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.1%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.76