Closing spread
PIT -1
Total
39.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play-0.136
- 44.5%Success rate38.5%
- -0.001EPA / dropback-0.061
- +0.022EPA / rush-0.257
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.4%
- -3.86CPOE-1.51
- 41.9%Third-down rate34.3%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
- 1.94Points / drive1.35
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.2 points. PIT are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 17/26 | 168 | 3 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 4/5 | 59 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 21 | 89 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Pascal | 5 | 6 | 76 | 1 |
| Parris Campbell | 5 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 3 | 4 | 22 | 1 |
| Chester Rogers | 3 | 5 | 22 | 1 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Deon Cain | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 26/35 | 191 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Edmunds | 12 | 73 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tony Brooks-James | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Samuels | 13 | 13 | 73 | 0 |
| James Washington | 4 | 4 | 69 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 5 | 7 | 30 | 1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnny Holton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.90
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.76