Closing spread
IND -3.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play+0.027
- 46.6%Success rate44.1%
- +0.104EPA / dropback+0.046
- +0.052EPA / rush-0.001
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.3%
- +0.62CPOE+0.58
- 43.0%Third-down rate40.4%
- 71.1%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 2.74Points / drive2.11
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.2 points. PIT are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 31/50 | 342 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 9 | 12 | 115 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 6 | 13 | 115 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 6 | 9 | 57 | 1 |
| Tyler Warren | 5 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Tyler Goodson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 25/35 | 203 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 16 | 31 | 1.9 | 2 |
| Kaleb Johnson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Austin III | 5 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 4 | 27 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Kaleb Johnson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Roman Wilson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
6.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.64