2025 · Week 9

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Daniel Jones

20·27

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Aaron Rodgers

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

IND -3.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.083EPA / play+0.027
  • 46.6%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.104EPA / dropback+0.046
  • +0.052EPA / rush-0.001
  • 8.1%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +0.62CPOE+0.58
  • 43.0%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 71.1%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 2.74Points / drive2.11
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 12–4 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. PIT are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5IND @ PIT22–34PIT
2024 · W4PIT @ IND24–27IND
2023 · W15PIT @ IND13–30IND
2022 · W12PIT @ IND24–17PIT
2020 · W16IND @ PIT24–28PIT
2019 · W9IND @ PIT24–26PIT
2017 · W10PIT @ IND20–17PIT
2016 · W12PIT @ IND28–7PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–PIT
PITQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:211379Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 8:053-4Punt7–0
PITQ1 5:5047Turnover on downs7–0
INDQ1 4:171747Turnover7–0
PITQ2 11:211341Touchdown7–7
INDQ2 6:0925Turnover7–7
PITQ2 5:12214Touchdown7–14
INDQ2 4:2237Punt7–14
PITQ2 3:191164Field goal7–17
INDQ3 15:00712Punt7–17
PITQ3 10:17523Punt7–17
INDQ3 7:03845Turnover7–17
PITQ3 3:09756Touchdown7–24
INDQ4 14:16832Field goal10–24
PITQ4 10:4537Punt10–24
INDQ4 8:2822Turnover10–24
PITQ4 7:5856Field goal10–27
INDQ4 6:51971Touchdown17–27
PITQ4 4:30211Turnover17–27
INDQ4 3:36320Turnover17–27
PITQ4 2:443-5Punt17–27
INDQ4 1:01548Field goal20–27
PITQ4 0:0900End of half20–27

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones31/5034213

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor14453.20
Daniel Jones341.31
Ameer Abdullah133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman9121150
Alec Pierce6131150
Josh Downs69571
Tyler Warren57260
Jonathan Taylor22120
Tyler Goodson1280
Adonai Mitchell1170
Ameer Abdullah1120
Mo Alie-Cox0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers25/3520310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren16311.92
Kaleb Johnson144.00
Aaron Rodgers200.00
Kenny Gainwell3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Austin III56560
Darnell Washington46430
Kenny Gainwell45350
Pat Freiermuth34271
Jonnu Smith35250
Kaleb Johnson1190
DK Metcalf2460
Roman Wilson1240
Jaylen Warren22-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

6.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.1%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.64