2023 · Week 15

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Mitchell Trubisky

13·30

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Gardner Minshew

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -1.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapColts
  • -0.064EPA / play-0.025
  • 42.3%Success rate41.5%
  • -0.060EPA / dropback+0.030
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.108
  • 8.8%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -0.21CPOE-3.92
  • 37.3%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 58.6%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.54Points / drive1.78
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 12–4 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. IND are 6-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5IND @ PIT22–34PIT
2025 · W9IND @ PIT20–27PIT
2024 · W4PIT @ IND24–27IND
2022 · W12PIT @ IND24–17PIT
2020 · W16IND @ PIT24–28PIT
2019 · W9IND @ PIT24–26PIT
2017 · W10PIT @ IND20–17PIT
2016 · W12PIT @ IND28–7PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–IND
PITQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
INDQ1 12:52932Missed field goal0–0
PITQ1 7:301254Touchdown6–0
INDQ1 1:1230Punt6–0
PITQ2 14:5321Touchdown13–0
INDQ2 14:07780Touchdown13–7
PITQ2 11:21419Turnover13–7
INDQ2 9:261455Turnover on downs13–7
PITQ2 3:23631Punt13–7
INDQ2 0:44448Touchdown13–14
PITQ2 0:2239End of half13–14
INDQ3 15:0038Punt13–14
PITQ3 13:2812Turnover13–20
INDQ3 13:22118Touchdown13–21
PITQ3 13:163-2Punt13–21
INDQ3 11:12440Field goal13–24
PITQ3 9:021166Punt13–24
INDQ3 3:141470Field goal13–27
PITQ4 9:17731Turnover13–27
INDQ4 5:57520Missed field goal13–27
PITQ4 2:084-8Turnover on downs13–27
INDQ4 1:4222Field goal13–30
PITQ4 0:48213End of half13–30

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky16/2316912
Mason Rudolph2/3300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren10404.00
Najee Harris12332.80
Mitchell Trubisky210.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson46621
George Pickens37470
Jaylen Warren56280
Allen Robinson33190
Pat Freiermuth34160

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew18/2821530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trey Sermon17885.20
Tyler Goodson11696.30
Zack Moss4133.30
Gardner Minshew200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman45780
D.J. Montgomery24481
Mo Alie-Cox23211
Zack Moss33201
Josh Downs33190
Alec Pierce15130
Tyler Goodson22100
Kylen Granson1160
Andrew Ogletree0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.9%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.61
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-0.05