Closing spread
IND -1.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.064EPA / play-0.025
- 42.3%Success rate41.5%
- -0.060EPA / dropback+0.030
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.108
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.6%
- -0.21CPOE-3.92
- 37.3%Third-down rate34.4%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.54Points / drive1.78
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.2 points. IND are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 16/23 | 169 | 1 | 2 |
| Mason Rudolph | 2/3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 4 | 6 | 62 | 1 |
| George Pickens | 3 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 5 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 18/28 | 215 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Sermon | 17 | 88 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Tyler Goodson | 11 | 69 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 5 | 78 | 0 |
| D.J. Montgomery | 2 | 4 | 48 | 1 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| Zack Moss | 3 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Josh Downs | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 1 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Tyler Goodson | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.9%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.90
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.61
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.05