Closing spread
SD -14.5
Total
47
Model margin
+4.3est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. SD are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 50 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 10:23 | 12 | 95 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 3:15 | 9 | 64 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| KC | Q2 14:03 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q2 12:20 | 10 | 77 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| KC | Q2 6:47 | 7 | 83 | Touchdown | 13–6 |
| LAC | Q2 3:11 | 4 | 26 | Turnover | 13–6 |
| KC | Q2 1:23 | 6 | 48 | End of half | 13–6 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 13–6 |
| LAC | Q3 12:13 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 13–6 |
| KC | Q3 8:51 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 13–6 |
| LAC | Q3 7:57 | 8 | 63 | Touchdown | 13–13 |
| KC | Q3 3:43 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 13–13 |
| LAC | Q3 2:42 | 2 | 18 | Turnover | 13–13 |
| KC | Q3 2:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 13–13 |
| LAC | Q3 0:23 | 15 | 89 | Touchdown | 13–20 |
| KC | Q4 6:55 | 4 | 36 | Punt | 13–20 |
| LAC | Q4 4:31 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 13–20 |
| KC | Q4 3:00 | 16 | 43 | Touchdown | 19–20 |
| LAC | Q4 0:23 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 19–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Thigpen | 27/41 | 266 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dantrell Savage | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.5%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.29
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.