Closing spread
ATL -1
Total
51
Model margin
-0.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.120EPA / play+0.066
- 48.7%Success rate43.0%
- +0.213EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.021
- 9.2%Explosive rate10.9%
- +2.69CPOE+0.99
- 49.2%Third-down rate43.3%
- 65.5%Red-zone TD rate55.2%
- 2.42Points / drive2.04
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–23 since 1999
ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. ATL are 25-30 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 14:39 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 12:42 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 11:06 | 5 | 50 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 9:07 | 12 | 71 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| ATL | Q1 2:15 | 10 | 70 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| NO | Q2 12:04 | 6 | 51 | Field goal | 6–14 |
| ATL | Q2 8:33 | 11 | 75 | Field goal | 6–17 |
| NO | Q2 3:05 | 11 | 62 | Turnover on downs | 6–17 |
| ATL | Q2 0:59 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 6–17 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–17 |
| NO | Q3 13:26 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 6–17 |
| ATL | Q3 10:36 | 12 | 60 | Field goal | 6–20 |
| NO | Q3 2:06 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–20 |
| ATL | Q3 1:32 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 6–27 |
| NO | Q4 14:40 | 12 | 90 | Touchdown | 13–27 |
| ATL | Q4 9:54 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 13–27 |
| NO | Q4 8:10 | 13 | 79 | Turnover | 13–27 |
| ATL | Q4 4:21 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 13–27 |
| NO | Q4 2:23 | 5 | 68 | Opp touchdown | 13–34 |
| NO | Q4 1:17 | 6 | 69 | Touchdown | 20–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 31/58 | 422 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 30 | 30.0 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 16/23 | 248 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 27 | 96 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jerious Norwood | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
47.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.10