Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.093EPA / play+0.004
- 47.3%Success rate43.8%
- +0.129EPA / dropback+0.039
- +0.050EPA / rush-0.055
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.3%
- +0.84CPOE-1.08
- 43.7%Third-down rate41.3%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate50.9%
- 2.09Points / drive1.73
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 17/31 | 191 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 22 | 126 | 5.7 | 2 |
| Derrick Ward | 17 | 53 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 17/36 | 194 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 35 | 11.7 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 13 | 26 | 2.0 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.07
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.55