Closing spread
ARI -9.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.056EPA / play+0.052
- 43.6%Success rate45.0%
- -0.002EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.140
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.6%
- +1.59CPOE+5.02
- 37.4%Third-down rate43.3%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 1.64Points / drive2.12
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. ARI are 23-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 19/40 | 217 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 23 | 99 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 32/42 | 328 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 13 | 22 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.92