Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.052EPA / play-0.057
- 45.0%Success rate37.8%
- +0.144EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.140EPA / rush-0.103
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.7%
- +5.02CPOE-5.09
- 43.3%Third-down rate31.4%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
- 2.12Points / drive1.56
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. SEA are 26-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 32/44 | 395 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Arrington | 8 | 40 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Tim Hightower | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 17/29 | 170 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 10 | 19 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 2 |
| Maurice Morris | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.2%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.17
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.45
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-1.06