Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.052EPA / play-0.057
- 45.0%Success rate37.8%
- +0.144EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.140EPA / rush-0.103
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.7%
- +5.02CPOE-5.09
- 43.3%Third-down rate31.4%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
- 2.12Points / drive1.56
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. SEA are 27-21-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 70 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q1 7:47 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 3–0 |
| ARI | Q1 3:40 | 8 | 89 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| SEA | Q1 0:04 | 11 | 16 | Punt | 10–0 |
| ARI | Q2 9:30 | 9 | 65 | Field goal | 13–0 |
| SEA | Q2 4:34 | 3 | -1 | Turnover | 13–0 |
| ARI | Q2 2:56 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 13–0 |
| SEA | Q2 1:44 | 4 | 14 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| ARI | Q2 0:57 | 5 | 27 | Field goal | 16–7 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 44 | Turnover | 16–7 |
| ARI | Q3 12:50 | 6 | 64 | Field goal | 19–7 |
| SEA | Q3 9:36 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 19–7 |
| ARI | Q3 6:45 | 10 | 81 | Touchdown | 26–7 |
| SEA | Q3 1:55 | 7 | 48 | Turnover | 26–7 |
| SEA | Q4 14:47 | 5 | 11 | Touchdown | 26–13 |
| ARI | Q4 12:46 | 2 | -6 | Turnover | 26–13 |
| SEA | Q4 12:32 | 5 | 14 | Touchdown | 26–20 |
| ARI | Q4 9:41 | 7 | 38 | Punt | 26–20 |
| SEA | Q4 5:38 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 26–20 |
| ARI | Q4 4:00 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 26–20 |
| SEA | Q4 2:05 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 26–20 |
| ARI | Q4 1:55 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 26–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 32/44 | 395 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Arrington | 8 | 40 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Tim Hightower | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 17/29 | 170 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 10 | 19 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 2 |
| Maurice Morris | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.2%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.17
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.45
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-1.06