Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+5.6est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.095EPA / play+0.051
- 39.3%Success rate43.8%
- -0.083EPA / dropback+0.134
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.072
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- -3.00CPOE+4.24
- 35.1%Third-down rate44.1%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate66.2%
- 1.70Points / drive1.94
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 41–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. GB are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 51 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 10:46 | 8 | 40 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 7:08 | 8 | 78 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q1 2:28 | 10 | 51 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| GB | Q2 12:12 | 11 | 46 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| CHI | Q2 6:21 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–7 |
| GB | Q2 4:22 | 8 | 58 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| CHI | Q2 1:11 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 3–14 |
| GB | Q2 0:42 | 2 | 5 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| CHI | Q2 0:15 | 2 | 8 | End of half | 3–17 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 3–17 |
| GB | Q3 12:54 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 3–17 |
| CHI | Q3 10:00 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 3–17 |
| GB | Q3 8:11 | 11 | 88 | Touchdown | 3–24 |
| CHI | Q3 3:01 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 3–24 |
| GB | Q3 1:46 | 12 | 43 | Field goal | 3–27 |
| CHI | Q4 9:51 | 6 | 36 | Opp touchdown | 3–34 |
| CHI | Q4 7:31 | 5 | 17 | Turnover on downs | 3–34 |
| GB | Q4 6:02 | 7 | 30 | Field goal | 3–37 |
| CHI | Q4 1:56 | 5 | 28 | End of half | 3–37 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 13/26 | 133 | 0 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 4/7 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 16 | 64 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 23/30 | 227 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 25 | 145 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Brandon Jackson | 10 | 50 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.59