2008 · Week 11 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
DAL -1
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play-0.032
- 41.9%Success rate42.3%
- -0.021EPA / dropback+0.004
- -0.015EPA / rush-0.080
- 10.2%Explosive rate7.5%
- +3.06CPOE-1.49
- 43.2%Third-down rate36.0%
- 67.6%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 1.67Points / drive1.37
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 39–16 since 1999
DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. WAS are 23-32 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 12:42 | 10 | 49 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 7:32 | 10 | 56 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| WAS | Q1 1:29 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q2 15:00 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 0–7 |
| WAS | Q2 12:58 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q2 11:52 | 5 | 38 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| WAS | Q2 9:37 | 8 | 34 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q2 4:41 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| WAS | Q2 1:01 | 3 | 14 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| DAL | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–10 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 52 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| DAL | Q3 8:23 | 5 | 3 | Punt | 7–10 |
| WAS | Q3 6:08 | 5 | 33 | Missed field goal | 7–10 |
| DAL | Q3 3:15 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–10 |
| WAS | Q3 1:30 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 7–10 |
| DAL | Q4 14:48 | 8 | 67 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| WAS | Q4 10:36 | 8 | 27 | Turnover on downs | 14–10 |
| DAL | Q4 6:40 | 11 | 49 | End of half | 14–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 19/27 | 198 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 24 | 114 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 22/34 | 162 | 1 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 15 | 68 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
41.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.01