2008 · Week 11 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
DAL -1
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play-0.032
- 41.9%Success rate42.3%
- -0.021EPA / dropback+0.004
- -0.015EPA / rush-0.080
- 10.2%Explosive rate7.5%
- +3.06CPOE-1.49
- 43.2%Third-down rate36.0%
- 67.6%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 1.67Points / drive1.37
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 23-31 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 19/27 | 198 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 24 | 114 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 22/34 | 162 | 1 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 15 | 68 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
41.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.01