Closing spread
CAR -14
Total
40.5
Model margin
+10.9est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
3.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.162EPA / play+0.066
- 36.3%Success rate42.5%
- -0.203EPA / dropback+0.073
- -0.092EPA / rush+0.059
- 8.2%Explosive rate11.3%
- -3.61CPOE-1.27
- 28.7%Third-down rate40.0%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.21Points / drive1.98
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 8–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. CAR are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 20/35 | 207 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 24 | 112 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Rudi Johnson | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 10/19 | 98 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 15 | 130 | 8.7 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 14 | 120 | 8.6 | 2 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.60%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
76.4%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.54
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.90
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+10.93