Closing spread
CAR -14
Total
40.5
Model margin
+10.9est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
3.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.162EPA / play+0.066
- 36.3%Success rate42.5%
- -0.203EPA / dropback+0.073
- -0.092EPA / rush+0.059
- 8.2%Explosive rate11.3%
- -3.61CPOE-1.27
- 28.7%Third-down rate40.0%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.21Points / drive1.98
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. CAR are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q1 7:23 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DET | Q1 6:22 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q1 6:13 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DET | Q1 4:45 | 12 | 65 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| CAR | Q2 12:59 | 8 | 76 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| DET | Q2 8:19 | 6 | 34 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| CAR | Q2 4:43 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 13–14 |
| DET | Q2 2:39 | 1 | 9 | Turnover | 13–14 |
| CAR | Q2 2:24 | 5 | 38 | Touchdown | 13–21 |
| DET | Q2 1:03 | 6 | 32 | Field goal | 16–21 |
| CAR | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 16–21 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 80 | Field goal | 16–24 |
| DET | Q3 8:24 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 16–24 |
| CAR | Q3 6:38 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 16–24 |
| DET | Q3 6:26 | 6 | -6 | Punt | 16–24 |
| CAR | Q3 3:14 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 16–24 |
| DET | Q4 14:07 | 15 | 65 | Touchdown | 22–24 |
| CAR | Q4 6:05 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 22–24 |
| DET | Q4 4:58 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 22–30 |
| CAR | Q4 4:50 | 1 | 4 | Touchdown | 22–31 |
| DET | Q4 4:44 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 22–31 |
| CAR | Q4 4:21 | 4 | 27 | Punt | 22–31 |
| DET | Q4 2:41 | 6 | 28 | Turnover | 22–31 |
| CAR | Q4 1:17 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 22–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 20/35 | 207 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 24 | 112 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Rudi Johnson | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 10/19 | 98 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 15 | 130 | 8.7 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 14 | 120 | 8.6 | 2 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.60%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
76.4%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.54
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.90
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+10.93