Closing spread
IND -9
Total
50.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play+0.114
- 45.3%Success rate48.1%
- +0.069EPA / dropback+0.230
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.087
- 9.6%Explosive rate6.4%
- +3.93CPOE+4.76
- 42.2%Third-down rate50.8%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
- 1.91Points / drive2.14
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. IND are 27-19-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sage Rosenfels | 13/18 | 192 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 14 | 156 | 11.1 | 1 |
| Ahman Green | 9 | 17 | 1.9 | 2 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 30/46 | 320 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 22 | 105 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.84