Closing spread
IND -9
Total
50.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play+0.114
- 45.3%Success rate48.1%
- +0.069EPA / dropback+0.230
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.087
- 9.6%Explosive rate6.4%
- +3.93CPOE+4.76
- 42.2%Third-down rate50.8%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
- 1.91Points / drive2.14
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. IND are 28-19-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 67 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| IND | Q1 9:21 | 8 | 27 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| HOU | Q1 5:39 | 4 | 56 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| IND | Q1 2:58 | 14 | 45 | Field goal | 6–6 |
| HOU | Q2 11:34 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 6–6 |
| IND | Q2 9:56 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–6 |
| HOU | Q2 7:47 | 9 | 41 | Touchdown | 13–6 |
| IND | Q2 2:51 | 14 | 91 | Field goal | 13–9 |
| HOU | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–9 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 81 | Touchdown | 13–16 |
| HOU | Q3 11:08 | 3 | 79 | Touchdown | 20–16 |
| IND | Q3 9:30 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 20–23 |
| HOU | Q3 6:14 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 20–23 |
| IND | Q3 4:28 | 11 | 73 | Touchdown | 20–30 |
| HOU | Q4 14:56 | 10 | 77 | Touchdown | 27–30 |
| IND | Q4 8:54 | 15 | 69 | Field goal | 27–33 |
| HOU | Q4 1:52 | 5 | 19 | Turnover | 27–33 |
| IND | Q4 0:32 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–33 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sage Rosenfels | 13/18 | 192 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 14 | 156 | 11.1 | 1 |
| Ahman Green | 9 | 17 | 1.9 | 2 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 30/46 | 320 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 22 | 105 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.84