2005 · Week 1
Final
Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
MIN -6
Total
43.5
Model margin
-1.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play-0.074
- 39.7%Success rate40.6%
- -0.064EPA / dropback-0.009
- -0.068EPA / rush-0.185
- 6.8%Explosive rate7.1%
- 38.9%Third-down rate33.7%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.36Points / drive1.46
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.097EPA / play allowed-0.028
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. MIN are 5-10-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 12:59 | 9 | 46 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 8:10 | 6 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 4:31 | 2 | -8 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 3:39 | 3 | 5 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 2:44 | 8 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q2 14:55 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| TB | Q2 13:36 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q2 12:35 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–7 |
| TB | Q2 11:03 | 12 | 90 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| MIN | Q2 4:38 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–7 |
| TB | Q2 3:00 | 8 | 46 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| MIN | Q2 0:17 | 1 | 7 | End of half | 17–7 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 17–7 |
| TB | Q3 12:54 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 17–7 |
| MIN | Q3 10:59 | 12 | 59 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| TB | Q3 3:52 | 6 | 10 | Punt | 17–10 |
| MIN | Q4 14:47 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–10 |
| TB | Q4 13:16 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 17–10 |
| MIN | Q4 11:50 | 10 | 46 | Field goal | 17–13 |
| TB | Q4 6:13 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–13 |
| MIN | Q4 4:11 | 9 | 59 | Turnover | 17–13 |
| TB | Q4 1:45 | 3 | 80 | Touchdown | 24–13 |
| MIN | Q4 1:23 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 24–13 |
| TB | Q4 1:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 18/29 | 213 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 27 | 148 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 22/33 | 233 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moe Williams | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 6 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.4%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.87
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.38