2005 · Week 1
Final
Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
MIN -6
Total
43.5
Model margin
-1.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play-0.074
- 39.7%Success rate40.6%
- -0.064EPA / dropback-0.009
- -0.068EPA / rush-0.185
- 6.8%Explosive rate7.1%
- 38.9%Third-down rate33.7%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.36Points / drive1.46
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.097EPA / play allowed-0.028
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–5 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. MIN are 4-10-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 18/29 | 213 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 27 | 148 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 22/33 | 233 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moe Williams | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 6 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.4%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.87
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.38