Closing spread
MIA -10
Total
38
Model margin
+3.2est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 13–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. MIA are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 16/22 | 174 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 16 | 101 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 42 | 21.0 | 1 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 1 |
| Chad Pennington | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.23
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.