Closing spread
PIT -4.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.7 points. PIT are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 31/41 | 308 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 25 | 115 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Gary Russell | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.45
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.