Closing spread
SF -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
SF perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 43 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 10:59 | 2 | 41 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:15 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 8:31 | 5 | 17 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 6:37 | 14 | 75 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| SF | Q2 13:26 | 5 | 69 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| LA | Q2 10:38 | 2 | 4 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| SF | Q2 9:51 | 4 | 16 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| LA | Q2 7:50 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| SF | Q2 6:46 | 7 | 60 | Touchdown | 3–28 |
| LA | Q2 3:32 | 4 | 22 | Turnover | 3–28 |
| SF | Q2 1:49 | 7 | 56 | Touchdown | 3–35 |
| LA | Q2 0:34 | 4 | 50 | End of half | 3–35 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 3–35 |
| LA | Q3 11:26 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 3–35 |
| SF | Q3 9:11 | 5 | 4 | Punt | 3–35 |
| LA | Q3 6:17 | 9 | 42 | Field goal | 6–35 |
| SF | Q3 3:51 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 6–35 |
| LA | Q3 2:19 | 6 | 66 | Field goal | 9–35 |
| SF | Q4 15:00 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 9–35 |
| LA | Q4 13:17 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 9–35 |
| SF | Q4 10:57 | 7 | 38 | Turnover | 9–35 |
| LA | Q4 6:41 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 9–35 |
| SF | Q4 6:10 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 9–35 |
| LA | Q4 4:34 | 12 | 59 | Touchdown | 16–35 |
| SF | Q4 1:56 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 16–35 |
| LA | Q4 1:28 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 16–35 |
| SF | Q4 0:17 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 16–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 15/20 | 213 | 2 | 0 |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 18 | 106 | 5.9 | 2 |
| DeShaun Foster | 10 | 17 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 1 |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Isaac Bruce | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.73
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.68
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.