Closing spread
SF -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
SF perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 15/20 | 213 | 2 | 0 |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 18 | 106 | 5.9 | 2 |
| DeShaun Foster | 10 | 17 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 1 |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Isaac Bruce | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.73
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.68
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.