Closing spread
TEN -1
Total
39.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.003EPA / play-0.004
- 41.7%Success rate44.6%
- +0.037EPA / dropback+0.013
- -0.044EPA / rush-0.032
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.0%
- -2.44CPOE+3.08
- 36.7%Third-down rate41.7%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 1.83Points / drive1.65
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 46 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 12:55 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 9:03 | 7 | 57 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| JAX | Q1 5:27 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q1 2:46 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–0 |
| JAX | Q1 1:31 | 12 | 67 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| TEN | Q2 10:11 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q2 8:40 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 3–7 |
| TEN | Q2 6:49 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q2 5:21 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 3–7 |
| TEN | Q2 2:15 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q2 1:06 | 5 | 32 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| TEN | Q2 0:14 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–14 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 2 | Punt | 3–14 |
| TEN | Q3 12:37 | 7 | 55 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| JAX | Q3 9:12 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–14 |
| TEN | Q3 8:09 | 3 | 63 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| JAX | Q3 7:14 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 17–14 |
| TEN | Q3 3:35 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 17–14 |
| JAX | Q3 0:24 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–14 |
| TEN | Q4 14:07 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–14 |
| JAX | Q4 12:37 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–14 |
| TEN | Q4 10:46 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–14 |
| JAX | Q4 9:19 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–14 |
| TEN | Q4 8:20 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 17–14 |
| JAX | Q4 6:45 | 2 | 14 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| TEN | Q4 5:49 | 4 | 51 | Touchdown | 24–14 |
| JAX | Q4 3:57 | 6 | 14 | Turnover on downs | 24–14 |
| TEN | Q4 2:20 | 5 | 14 | End of half | 24–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 13/23 | 230 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 17 | 64 | 3.8 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 13/30 | 135 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 17 | 66 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Fred Taylor | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.04
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.44