2008 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Kerry Collins

24·14

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

Jacksonville Municipal Stadium · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

TEN -1

Total

39.5

Model margin

+0.4est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapJaguars
  • -0.003EPA / play-0.004
  • 41.7%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback+0.013
  • -0.044EPA / rush-0.032
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -2.44CPOE+3.08
  • 36.7%Third-down rate41.7%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.65
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins13/2323031

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson17643.80
LenDale White14523.70
Kerry Collins2-2-1.00

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard13/3013501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew17663.92
Fred Taylor12584.80
David Garrard3165.30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.3%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.44