Closing spread
ATL -1
Total
41
Model margin
+1.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play+0.066
- 42.5%Success rate43.0%
- +0.073EPA / dropback+0.161
- +0.059EPA / rush-0.021
- 11.3%Explosive rate10.9%
- -1.27CPOE+0.99
- 40.0%Third-down rate43.3%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate55.2%
- 1.98Points / drive2.04
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–22 since 1999
CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. ATL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 70 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CAR | Q1 11:16 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–3 |
| ATL | Q1 9:40 | 7 | 66 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| CAR | Q1 5:03 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 0–10 |
| ATL | Q1 3:39 | 10 | 42 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| CAR | Q2 13:20 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–17 |
| ATL | Q2 11:06 | 3 | 18 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| CAR | Q2 9:35 | 8 | 47 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| ATL | Q2 5:22 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–17 |
| CAR | Q2 4:19 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 3–17 |
| ATL | Q2 2:40 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–17 |
| CAR | Q2 1:40 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 3–17 |
| ATL | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–17 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| ATL | Q3 12:21 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–17 |
| CAR | Q3 11:31 | 11 | 55 | Field goal | 13–17 |
| ATL | Q3 5:27 | 12 | 75 | Touchdown | 13–24 |
| CAR | Q4 14:57 | 8 | 83 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| ATL | Q4 10:57 | 7 | 79 | Touchdown | 21–31 |
| CAR | Q4 7:13 | 3 | -8 | Opp touchdown | 21–38 |
| CAR | Q4 4:47 | 8 | 67 | Touchdown | 28–38 |
| ATL | Q4 2:23 | 5 | 36 | Touchdown | 28–45 |
| CAR | Q4 0:54 | 3 | 32 | End of half | 28–45 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 21/35 | 295 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 19 | 101 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 17/27 | 259 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 24 | 117 | 4.9 | 4 |
| Jerious Norwood | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.29