Closing spread
CHI -7
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
3.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. STL are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 18/29 | 139 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 20 | 132 | 6.6 | 2 |
| Adrian Peterson | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Rashied Davis | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.81
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.