Closing spread
CHI -7
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
3.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. STL are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 49 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 13:05 | 5 | -5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CHI | Q1 9:57 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 6:55 | 3 | -12 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CHI | Q1 4:54 | 7 | 63 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| LA | Q1 1:44 | 4 | 1 | Missed field goal | 14–0 |
| CHI | Q2 14:55 | 5 | 29 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| LA | Q2 12:25 | 6 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 14–0 |
| CHI | Q2 10:03 | 2 | 51 | Touchdown | 21–0 |
| LA | Q2 9:22 | 8 | 59 | Field goal | 21–3 |
| CHI | Q2 5:01 | 8 | 54 | Field goal | 24–3 |
| LA | Q2 1:38 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 24–3 |
| CHI | Q2 0:54 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 24–3 |
| LA | Q2 0:10 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–3 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 24–3 |
| CHI | Q3 10:53 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 24–3 |
| LA | Q3 8:58 | 3 | 14 | Turnover | 24–3 |
| CHI | Q3 7:59 | 6 | 15 | Field goal | 27–3 |
| LA | Q3 5:13 | 3 | 33 | Turnover | 27–3 |
| CHI | Q3 3:33 | 7 | 12 | Punt | 27–3 |
| LA | Q4 14:52 | 12 | 58 | Turnover | 27–3 |
| CHI | Q4 9:28 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 27–3 |
| LA | Q4 5:31 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 27–3 |
| CHI | Q4 5:24 | 2 | 8 | Turnover | 27–3 |
| LA | Q4 4:44 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 27–3 |
| CHI | Q4 1:51 | 2 | 3 | End of half | 27–3 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 18/29 | 139 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 20 | 132 | 6.6 | 2 |
| Adrian Peterson | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Rashied Davis | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.81
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.