Closing spread
PIT -11.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+5.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.172EPA / play-0.031
- 38.0%Success rate42.9%
- -0.150EPA / dropback+0.022
- -0.208EPA / rush-0.103
- 5.1%Explosive rate7.8%
- -3.29CPOE+0.13
- 35.3%Third-down rate41.3%
- 45.7%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
- 0.93Points / drive1.61
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 20/37 | 168 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 16 | 35 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chris Perry | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 17/30 | 243 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mewelde Moore | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Willie Parker | 14 | 37 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Carey Davis | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Gary Russell | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.2%
Expected total
39.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.21
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.70