Closing spread
NO -1
Total
51.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play+0.120
- 43.8%Success rate48.7%
- +0.134EPA / dropback+0.213
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.043
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.2%
- +4.24CPOE+2.69
- 44.1%Third-down rate49.2%
- 66.2%Red-zone TD rate65.5%
- 1.94Points / drive2.42
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 55.8 points. NO are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 13:27 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 11:52 | 7 | 37 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 8:39 | 1 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| GB | Q1 8:17 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NO | Q1 7:17 | 5 | 41 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| GB | Q1 4:44 | 12 | 72 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| NO | Q2 13:43 | 9 | 76 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| GB | Q2 8:19 | 14 | 83 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| NO | Q2 1:44 | 5 | 25 | Field goal | 21–24 |
| GB | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–24 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 75 | Touchdown | 21–31 |
| GB | Q3 8:34 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 21–31 |
| NO | Q3 7:40 | 2 | 3 | Touchdown | 21–38 |
| GB | Q3 7:32 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 21–38 |
| NO | Q3 6:16 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 21–38 |
| GB | Q3 5:35 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 21–38 |
| NO | Q3 3:54 | 3 | 73 | Touchdown | 21–45 |
| GB | Q3 2:26 | 15 | 86 | Touchdown | 29–45 |
| NO | Q4 11:45 | 5 | 42 | Touchdown | 29–51 |
| GB | Q4 8:47 | 8 | 46 | Turnover | 29–51 |
| NO | Q4 5:56 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 29–51 |
| GB | Q4 3:31 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 29–51 |
| NO | Q4 2:29 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 29–51 |
| GB | Q4 0:15 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 29–51 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 23/41 | 248 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 18 | 67 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Brandon Jackson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 20/26 | 323 | 4 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 15 | 87 | 5.8 | 2 |
| Mike Bell | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.34