2008 · Week 12

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Sage Rosenfels

16·6

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brady Quinn

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 30°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

CLE -3

Total

49.5

Model margin

+0.2est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapBrowns
  • +0.037EPA / play-0.155
  • 45.3%Success rate36.2%
  • +0.069EPA / dropback-0.205
  • -0.012EPA / rush-0.086
  • 9.6%Explosive rate6.7%
  • +3.93CPOE-11.69
  • 42.2%Third-down rate33.5%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate29.2%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.05
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 39.9 points. CLE are 5-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · playoffsCLE @ HOU14–45HOU
2023 · W16CLE @ HOU36–22CLE
2022 · W13CLE @ HOU27–14CLE
2021 · W2HOU @ CLE21–31CLE
2020 · W10HOU @ CLE7–10CLE
2018 · W13CLE @ HOU13–29HOU
2017 · W6CLE @ HOU17–33HOU
2014 · W11HOU @ CLE23–7HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–CLE
HOUQ1 15:001489Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 6:49521Turnover7–0
HOUQ1 4:35933Field goal10–0
CLEQ2 13:371257Field goal10–3
HOUQ2 7:59654Missed field goal10–3
CLEQ2 3:34446Field goal10–6
HOUQ2 2:201183Field goal13–6
CLEQ2 0:0300Missed field goal13–6
HOUQ2 0:0100Missed field goal13–6
CLEQ3 15:0036Punt13–6
HOUQ3 13:50433Turnover13–6
CLEQ3 11:282-3Turnover13–6
HOUQ3 10:43425Field goal16–6
CLEQ3 8:48951Turnover16–6
HOUQ3 3:41522Punt16–6
CLEQ3 0:1432Punt16–6
HOUQ4 14:3839Punt16–6
CLEQ4 12:241545Missed field goal16–6
HOUQ4 7:3432Turnover16–6
CLEQ4 6:3820Turnover16–6
HOUQ4 6:17615Punt16–6
CLEQ4 3:02315Turnover16–6
HOUQ4 2:22418End of half16–6

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sage Rosenfels24/3227512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steve Slaton21733.50
Ahman Green13393.00
Sage Rosenfels200.00

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brady Quinn8/189402
Derek Anderson5/145101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis10585.80
Jerome Harrison7314.40
Josh Cribbs263.00
Derek Anderson100.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.37%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.6%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.23
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.03
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.21